| 02/02/12 | Housing: Is the Glass Half-Full? |
| 01/19/12 | Implications of a Turn in Credit, Rules for Picking Financials Stocks, Exploiting Regime |
| 01/12/12 | China and the Precedent of Japan, Do More Jobs Mean Lower Margins? |
| 01/06/12 | The Big Picture: Tail Tales |
| 12/21/11 | Macroitis: Stock Pickers Frustrated, U.S. Housing: Moving Forward, Faster, China: Big Challenges, Big Policy Changes Lie Ahead, The Future of Money Management Industry: Bundling is Back |
| 12/16/11 | Model Performance, Dividend Yield, Mega-Cap Stocks, Cash Flow Margins |
| 12/05/11 | The Big Picture: Cold Turkey, What’s Cheap? Bretton Woods II and Free Cash Flow |
| 11/30/11 | The Outlook for the High-End Consumer and the Stocks |
| 11/18/11 | Picking Small-Cap Stocks: What’s Worked and Why, Earnings: The Capital Spending Recovery Continues, Anomaly Watch |
| 11/11/11 | Post Crisis Blues: The Second-Half Improves, ETFs and Equity Correlations, Free Cash Flow-to-Enterprise Value: An Elixir |
| 11/03/11 | Chinese Housing: The Hissing Sounds Grows Louder |
| 10/28/11 | The Distrusted Fifty Turns Seven, Regime: Now Biased Toward Valuation, Modeling Economic Policy Uncertainty |
| 10/21/11 | The Big Picture: Outfoxed? |
| 10/18/11 | Dividend Yield Coveted, Dividend Growth Spurned |
| 10/07/11 | The Big Picture: Spreads, Dread and Politics, Finding Failure: Seven Years On, Energy: Nearing the “Nobody Knows Nuttin’” Point |
| 09/27/11 | The Big Picture: Certitude and Pragmatism, The Growth Stock Winners: Overdone? Exploiting Earnings Surprises, Technology Investment Cycles |
| 09/19/11 | Health Care Stocks and the Precedent of Japan, The “China Plays” Revisited |
| 09/12/11 | The Big Picture: Global Growth in Doubt, Is the U.S. Japan? Revisited |
| 08/25/11 | The Consumer: How Vulnerable? The U.S., Europe and the Runaway Train, The Steep Cost of Political Gridlock |
| 08/17/11 | Exhausted, and Engaging the Battle Once Again |
| 08/10/11 | Out of Will? Out of Time? Out of Money? |
| 08/03/11 | The Growth Stock Trading Model, Are Earnings “Beats” Exploitable? Earnings Stability in Context |
| 07/27/11 | A Really Big Earnings Cycle, Manager Performance and the Whipsaw Effect, The Credit Cycle and the Banks, Market Valuation |
| 07/14/11 | Consumer Cyclical Stocks: Act II, Modeling Media Stocks, Big Growers Revisited |
| 07/07/11 | The Winners: Gross and Grosser, The Margin Story in Detail, Small Business Confidence and the Reversal Effect |
| 06/30/11 | Schemes and Screens |
| 06/27/11 | Energy: The Yin and Yang, Emerging Market Inflation, Housing’s Painfully Slow Workout |
| 06/13/11 | Where We Stand: Crossroads – Part II, Margins: A Cost Story, Twice Told, Model and Portfolio Performance |
| 06/02/11 | Mega-Cap Technology Stocks: Values? Exploiting Big Dividend Growth,China’s Currency Policy |
| 05/25/11 | GARP’s Edge, Mass Market Retailers and the Business Cycle, Inflation Risks |
| 05/16/11 | The Insatiable Demand for Hedging, The Credit Cycle Turns (Slowly), Do Compares Matter? |
| 05/03/11 | Schemes and Screens |
| 04/28/11 | Where We Stand: Crossroads, Do Small-Cap Value Stocks Go Bad? Model and Portfolio Performance |
| 04/12/11 | Illustrated: Energy Prices and the Cycle, Employment, “Normal” Earnings, Portfolio Construction: The Empirical Evidence |
| 04/05/11 | Quantitative Easing: Does it Matter? Consumer Staples: Neutral (Plus), Do Value Stocks Go Bad? Part Two |
| 03/28/11 | Schemes and Screens |
| 03/25/11 | Capital Spending and Confidence Turn Up: Implications for Earnings |
| 03/22/11 | Do Value Stocks Go Bad? Three Interesting Papers, Exploiting Skew and Dispute |
| 03/18/11 | Japan's Disaster, China's Exports and Inflation, Small Businesses and Employment Growth |
| 03/09/11 | Oil: A Shock? |
| 03/02/11 | The Big Picture and Oil Prices, Active Management and the Conviction Imperative, China's Savers |
| 02/28/11 | Schemes and Screens |
| 02/23/11 | Agricultural Commodity Prices, Profit Margins and the Threat of Inflation, High-End Consumers and the Consumer Cyclical Stocks, The Credit Cycle on Track |
| 02/14/11 | Industrial Capital Equipment Stocks: High(er) Stakes Poker, Stock Picking Rules to Use at this Stage of the Recovery |
| 02/07/11 | Technology's Capital Spending Booms: So What? Reading the Mind of the Market: For Now, Good is Good, Model and Portfolio Performance |
| 02/02/11 | Earnings: The Survivalists Begin to Disarm, Bank Loan Growth and the Cycle, Reversal and the Growth Stock Leadership |
| 01/19/11 | Schemes and Screens |
| 01/13/11 | More on Lenders and the Cycle, Energy Prices and Consumer Spending: The Not-So-Bad News, Small-Cap's Edge: Going, Going, Not Yet Gone |
| 01/10/11 | Bretton Woods II, Currencies and the China Plays, Anomaly Watch: Really-Big-Mo Growth Stocks, Model and Portfolio Performance |
| 01/03/11 | The Consumer's Cycle and Timing the Lenders |
| 12/20/10 | Where We Stand: Illustrated |
| 12/16/10 | Schemes and Screens |
| 12/13/10 | Retrenchment and Returns, China Housing, Retailers - Is the Story Played Out? |
| 12/07/10 | Employment and Sector Betting: A Theory and Some Evidence, Exploiting Mispriced Growth Potential - Part II, Anomaly Watch: Free Cash Flow and Bond Yields |
| 11/22/10 | The Large-Capitalization Core Stock Selection Model |
| 11/19/10 | Screens and Schemes |
| 11/17/10 | Illustrated: Over-Yielding Cyclicals, Anomaly Watch: "China Plays" and the Oils, A Top-Down Look at Health Care Revenues, The Demand for Equities |
| 11/11/10 | The Big Picture: The Lure of the Specific, The Consumer: The Long Slog Back, Portfolio Performance and Changes |
| 11/01/10 | Earnings, Operating Leverage and a Turn in Capital Spending, The Return of Momentum Investing? Performance of Our Models Since the 2007 Peak |
| 10/15/10 | Where We Stand: Investment Cycles and Optionality, Bonus Depreciation and Capital Spending, A New Idea Machine |
| 10/08/10 | Transports: Capital Deployment Stories, Harmless Mergers? Small-Cap Stocks, Reinvestment Rates and the Cycle |
| 09/29/10 | More on Growth: Seen and Unseen, Productivity and Earnings Growth, Inflation, Budget Deficits and Slack |
| 09/21/10 | Growth: Seen and Unseen, Earnings and the State of Operating Leverage, Two Unconventional Recession Indicators, Portfolio Changes and Performance |
| 09/14/10 | Government Debt: Are We Doomed? |
| 09/01/10 | Anomaly Watch: Stock Versus Corporate Bond Yields, Spreads and Dread, Business Cycle Uncertainty, Consumer Credit Quality |
| 08/18/10 | The Big Picture: Path Dependent? Tactics in a High-Correlation Regime, Capital Spending and Equity Returns, China's Profits and Factor Returns |
| 08/10/10 | Illustrated: The Biggest Anomaly - The Reluctance to Reinvest, Value Cycles, Commercial Real Estate and Unemployment |
| 08/03/10 | Operating Leverage Redux, China's Bubble, Big Growers: Out of Favor |
| 07/28/10 | Systematic Risk Within Sectors, Consumer Cyclicals: Still Exploiting Retreat, The Housing Cycle: Bouncing Along the Bottom |
| 07/20/10 | The Big Picture, Technology: A Better Cyclical? Consumers' Creditworthiness, Disasters and the Equity Risk Premium |
| 07/08/10 | Tax Policy: The Empirical Evidence, Regime Change and Risk Aversion |
| 06/25/10 | The Employment Problem, Consumer Cyclicals and the Distrusted Fifty |
| 06/22/10 | Systematic Risks and Portfolio Construction, Bretton Woods II Over? Or Not? |
| 06/11/10 | The Big Picture: Aftershocks, Macroeconomic Indicators and the Market: A Test |
| 06/03/10 | Energy and the Opportunity to Know Nothing |
| 05/27/10 | Doubling Up: Combinations We Like |
| 05/24/10 | Gross Profits: A Secret Weapon? Earnings, Operating Leverage and Market Valuation, Failure Inc. |
| 05/19/10 | The European Sovereign Debt Crisis, In Context, Bedfellows: Private Equity and Easy Money |
| 04/30/10 | The Big Picture: Illustrated |
| 04/20/10 | The Consumer Cyclicals: A Tactical Perspective, Modeling Media Stocks, The China Plays and the Vacuum of Leadership |
| 04/13/10 | The Financials: Still Values? Portfolio Changes and Performance |
| 04/05/10 | Spreads and Dread: Act II, The Reckoning, Housing and the War of Wills, Retailers and the Small Base Effect |
| 03/22/10 | The Consumer: Up, Down and Sideways, Consumer Staples 101, Bretton Woods II and Protectionism |
| 03/16/10 | The Sweet Spot: Behavior and Cycles |
| 03/09/10 | Is All That Balance Sheet Liquidity a Trap? Disputed Value Rolls On, Groupthink and Institutional Investors, Portfolio Changes and Performance |
| 02/24/10 | Effective Stock Picking Tools to Help Portfolio Managers and Sector Analysts |
| 02/22/10 | A Brief Note on Monetary Policy |
| 02/18/10 | Technology: A Different Beast, Money Supply and the Market, Googling for Trading Ideas |
| 02/10/10 | Where We Stand: The Yin and Yang |
| 02/02/10 | The Consumer: Delevering, Spending and the Stocks, Small-Cap Stocks and the Abyss, Sector Betting Revisited |
| 01/25/10 | Improving Tactical Decision Making, Pattern Recognition and the China Plays, Structural Unemployment, Modeling the Consequences of the Budget Deficit |
| 01/19/10 | The Consumer: The High End and the Stocks, Uncertainty and the Duration of the Revaluation Cycle, Portfolio Changes |
| 01/08/10 | Bretton Woods II: Pushed Too Far? Free Cash Flow and Working Capital Drawdowns, Model and Portfolio Performance, A Favorite Screen |
| 12/21/09 | Where We Stand: Illustrated |
| 12/15/09 | Housing: The War of Wills and Consumption, Predicting the Payoff from Trend Following, Portfolio Performance and Changes |
| 12/08/09 | The Implications of 8% Free Cash Flow Yields, Large- Versus Small-Cap Stocks, Energy: Contango, Speculation and Valuation |
| 12/01/09 | The Electric Utilities: Growth Stocks No More, Disputed Momentum, Information Ratios |
| 11/13/09 | Cash for Cash Flow, Underreaction: Dead? Individualism and Trend Following, Model and Portfolio Performance |
| 11/09/09 | Where We Stand: Midstream, Consumer Confidence: Can It Turn, Does It Matter? Five Years of the Distrusted Fifty |
| 11/02/09 | Technology: Globalization and Free Cash Flow, The Earnings Outlook, Reflexivity and the Retail Investor, California Housing |
| 10/23/09 | Free Cash Flow: Profiting from the Unsustainable, Synchronicity as a Virtue, Sentiment and the Returns to Trend Following |
| 10/16/09 | The High-End Consumer: Pessimism Fading, Cash Piled Up Everywhere: So What? Regime Shift, Model and Portfolio Performance |
| 10/09/09 | Crisis Watch: Telling the Right Story, Now's the Time to be Active, The Message from ETF Flows, Housing: Timing is Everything |
| 09/21/09 | First In, First Out? The Hot Market States Revisited, Finding Failure: Five Years On, Disputed Value Remains Potent |
| 09/10/09 | The Big Picture: Further Along, But Not Yet at Our Destination, Quant Managers and the Cycle, Portfolio Performance and Changes |
| 08/27/09 | Illustrated: Spreads and Dread, Is Quality Cheap? The Natural Gas Stocks and Nothingness, The New World Order and Stock Picking |
| 08/24/09 | The U.S. Consumer: Struggling Back to the Shore? |
| 08/17/09 | Equities and the Appetite for Risk: Is This the Big One? Valuation and the Value Indices, Four Potent Screens |
| 08/11/09 | Where We Stand: A Classic Crisis, Second Quarter Earnings: More of the Same, Another January Effect, Model and Portfolio Performance |
| 07/31/09 | Inflation and the Irrational Left Tail |
| 07/24/09 | Technology and the Other Cyclicals: Too Far Too Fast? Understanding Multiples and Growth Rates, Exploiting Regimes in Growth Stock Investing |
| 07/16/09 | Technology - End of the Lost Decade? Housing: The Administration Tries Again, The Timing Looks Right for Our Trading Model |
| 07/10/09 | Unemployment: Bad Moon Rising? Regime Change - No Longer Just Valuation, Model and Portfolio Performance and Changes |
| 07/01/09 | Growth Stock Selection Strategy, California Real Estate, Utilities: Increasingly, Nobody Knows Nuttin' |
| 06/22/09 | The Mega-Revaluation Cycle: More to Come? Institutional Investors "Derisk," Free Cash Flow in Growth, Dilution: Not a Big Headwind |
| 06/16/09 | Commodity Stocks: Too Far, Too Fast? Consumer Durables: Big(ger) Swingers, Stubborn Unemployment, Inefficient Companies Make Better Stocks |
| 06/08/09 | The Big Picture, The High-End Consumer is a Super-Cyclical, Mid-Cycle Earnings Power, Portfolio Performance and Changes |
| 05/21/09 | Energy Stocks: Volatility and Optionality, Retailer Managements Retreat - A Bullish Sign, Exploiting the Unprecedented Cuts in S,G&A Expense |
| 05/11/09 | Illustrated: A Mega Valuation Cycle is Underway, Disputed Value: More to Go, Knowing the Regime Helps, Normal Earnings are in Phase |
| 05/08/09 | Stock Picking Tools for Small-Cap Analysts - Exploiting a Systematic Edge |
| 05/01/09 | Technology's Inventory Drawdown and Stock Picking, Portfolio Manager Risk Taking, First-Quarter Earnings, California Housing - Turning? |
| 04/24/09 | Recoveries from Financial Crises Have Been Different, The Triumph of Value Within Growth, Model and Portfolio Performance and Changes |
| 04/16/09 | The Big Picture: The Need for a Plan, Value Cycles: Duration and Dispute, Stocks Versus Bonds Revisited, More on Mortgage Modifications |
| 04/06/09 | What Worked in the Great Depression and Japan's Lost Decade, Finding Virtue in Stability, Is the Equity Ownership Era Over? |
| 03/30/09 | Hedgehogs and the Value Cycle, The Friendly Nature of Small Numbers, China's Deflation-Producing Machine, The Real Risk: Protectionism |
| 03/24/09 | Consumer Cyclical Stocks: Managements Capitulate - A Good Sign, Model and Portfolio Performance and Changes |
| 03/19/09 | Stock Picking Tools for Analysts - Finding a Systematic Edge |
| 03/13/09 | The Big Picture: Dividends, Deflation and Multiples, Earnings: Both Bad and Good, Commodities: For Three Centuries, Nobody's Known Nuttin' |
| 03/02/09 | Bretton Woods II Lives On, The Margin Collapse in Global Cyclicals, The High-End Consumer and Wealth Effects, Retailers: GARP Stocks, Now and Forever |
| 02/23/09 | Consumer Debt: Suffocating? The Government as a Prime Broker, Portfolio Performance and Changes |
| 02/13/09 | Hope, Despair and Pragmatism, Technology Versus Staples, Commercial Real Estate: The Good, the Bad and the Uglier |
| 02/05/09 | In Praise of GARP, Fourth Quarter Earnings and Free Cash Flow, Housing and Cram Downs, Sponsors Revise Down |
| 01/20/09 | Stimulus, Enough to Matter? Technology: Virtue and Virtuous, Estimating Normal |
| 01/09/09 | The Big Picture, Messages From Value's Recovery, Housing: A String, Not a Spring, Performance and Portfolio Changes |
| 12/19/08 | Something's Happening Here (Probably) - One of the Biggest Months for Valuation Ever |
| 12/17/08 | Bond Leadership? Growth Managers: Spreads and Dread, Contagion and Opportunities in Global Cyclicals |
| 12/08/08 | Will: The U.S. and the Precedent of Japan's Lost Decade |
| 11/25/08 | Illustrated: The Big Picture: Stocks, Bonds and More, China's Capacity and Deflation Risks, Energy Rising, High Versus Low-End Consumer Cyclicals, Free Cash Flow Return Premia |
| 11/18/08 | The Hedge Fund Bust and the Big Picture, The Consumer: A Long Drought? Exploiting Arbitrage Risk at a Turning Point |
| 11/03/08 | What Leads in Recoveries? Stock and Bond Coupling, Margins Hold Up Well, Using Normalized Earnings in Small-Cap |
| 10/23/08 | Market Valuation, Using Estimates of Normal Earnings and Cash Flow, Valuation Spreads Are Now Extreme Almost Everywhere |
| 10/15/08 | The Big Picture, Global Cyclicals and Leadership |
| 10/07/08 | The Sad History of Banking Crises, The Happier History of Low-Priced Bank Acquisitions, Free Cash Flow and Cash Hoards |
| 09/25/08 | The Fog of War, Lessons from the Great Depression, Valuation Comes Back, The Earnings Picture: It's All About the Global Cyclicals |
| 09/15/08 | The Global Cyclicals: After the Sell-Off, Value - A Bounce or a Turn? Model Performance, The Consumer and Contagion |
| 09/08/08 | The Large-Capitalization Core Stock Selection Model - Taking the Next Step Forward |
| 08/27/08 | Global Cyclicals: After the Deluge, Values? Consumer Staples: One Leg to Stand On, Housing and Rolling Regional Recessions |
| 08/19/08 | Correlations Gone Wild, Short Interest, Growth Stock Investing: In Praise of Free Cash Flow |
| 08/12/08 | Evidence of Global Economic Contagion, The Financials: Tale of the Tape, What Works When Picking Energy Stocks |
| 08/01/08 | Dispute and the Turn in Momentum Stocks, Home Prices and Contagious Disease, Earnings: Impressive Again, High Free Cash Flow Yields Lead |
| 07/25/08 | The Consumer: Is This the Big One? |
| 07/15/08 | Bretton Woods II: Close to the End? Recession, the Consumer, Corporations and Purgatory, Regime Indicator Now Neutral |
| 07/10/08 | Anomaly Watch - Momentum Boom and Value Bust, Pharmaceuticals: Defensive? Energy's Capital Efficiency, Failure Modeling Results, Growth Universe Rebalancing |
| 07/01/08 | The Big Picture, Demand Destruction: The Message from the Hot Markets, Spreads and Dread, Dumb Money |
| 06/20/08 | Recession Risk, Lessons from the Hot Markets, Earnings Revisions and the State of the Cycle, China: The Boom, Streaks and Trend Following, Hedge Funds and Turning Points |
| 06/12/08 | Perpetual Motion Once Again, Timing Value, Recession in the Hot Markets, Inflation Hedges |
| 05/29/08 | Momentum Markets, Commodity Investors, Home Sales, Capital Goods, Free Cash Flow |
| 05/06/08 | Shadow Boxing and Trends, Commodities and Interest Rates, Earnings, the Credit Cycle, Technology |
| 04/21/08 | Bretton Woods II, Momentum Anomalies, HMOs, Credit Cycle |
| 04/08/08 | The Big Picture: Wages of Sin, The Equity Yield Curve, Financials' Discounted ROEs |
| 03/25/08 | Financials, Global Cyclicals, Big-Cap Growth, Hedge Funds |
| 03/18/08 | Valuation Spreads and Recessions, Failure Modeling, Threats to Bretton Woods II, Trend-Following |
| 03/05/08 | Anomaly Watch: Technology's Yields, Earnings Outlook, High ROE, Distrusted Fifty Updated |
| 02/26/08 | Commercial Real Estate: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly, Financial Delevering |
| 02/15/08 | China's Capital Spending & Contagion, Trend-Following, Big Growers, PVF Transactions |
| 02/08/08 | Valuation Spreads Widen: The Implications for Stock Picking |
| 02/06/08 | The Housing Cycle, Earnings, Dividend Cuts & Distress, Portfolio Performance |
| 01/29/08 | Big Picture, Recession Playbook, Financials, Retailers, Gradual Regime Shift |
| 01/18/08 | Finding An All-Weather Advantage, The Global Cyclicals: High Stakes Poker, When Do Trends Cease to Matter? The Message from Corporate Bond Performance |
| 01/10/08 | Brinksmanship |
| 12/19/07 | Same As It Ever Was, Same As It Never Was |
| 12/14/07 | Where We Stand, Does Bond Performance Tell Us What Stocks to Buy? Consequences of Dividend Cuts, What Book to Use, Subprime Relief - Does it Matter? |
| 12/06/07 | The U.S., China and the Deep Cyclicals, Home Ownership and the Housing Cycle, Consumer Cyclicals: Not Ripe for Bottom Fishing |
| 11/26/07 | Extremities, The Housing Cycle, Gauging the Risk of Recession, Deep Cyclicals and the 1956 Precedent, The Distrusted Fifty Updated |
| 11/13/07 | Financial Stock Valuations, Earnings, A Regime-Sensitive Small-Cap Model |
| 11/02/07 | Timing the Financials, A Classic Growth Stock Cycle, Inflation Threats Assessed |
| 10/23/07 | Profit Margins and Regression to the Mean, Earnings Expectations: Do They Matter? The Brokerage Firms: Values or Fractured Momentum Stocks? |
| 10/16/07 | Growth Stocks As Leaders: Is What's Happening Unusual? A Regime-Sensitive Model, The Four Horsemen Ride Again, Hedge Fund Correlations |
| 10/09/07 | Anomaly Watch: Pattern Recognition Gone Wild? Technology: A Late Cycle Play? More on Housing and Consumer Spending, Portfolio Changes and Performance |
| 10/02/07 | The Dollar and Bretton Woods II, The Housing Adjustment and Consumer Cyclicals, More on What Works When Growth Stocks Lead, Fund of Funds Performance |
| 09/24/07 | The Momentum Market: More to Come? The Financials, The Fed and the Credit Cycle: The 1989-92 Precedent |
| 09/14/07 | Illustrated: The Cycle, When Growth Takes Over From Value, Size Matters; The Future of the Money Management Industry - A Brief Update |
| 09/07/07 | The Fed, the Cycle and Financial Stocks, The Consumer: Near the Breaking Point? The Distrusted Fifty Updated |
| 08/27/07 | What's the Matter with Quant Models? The Answer: A Turning Point + Leverage, Utilities: What Counts, Combining Our Investment and Trading Models |
| 08/15/07 | Betwixt and Between |
| 08/07/07 | The Mortgage Credit Crunch: Where We Stand |
| 07/26/07 | The Run in Global Cyclicals: How Will We Know When the End is Near? Countrywide, Housing and the Financials, the Small-Capitalization Trading Model |
| 07/20/07 | Technology - One Year Later, Trading Rules, Dividend Growth Counts - Occasionally |
| 07/16/07 | FAQs: Subprime ARM Repricings, Energy: Elasticity of Demand, Seasonality and Momentum, Convertibles with Big Premiums, Modeling Micro-Caps,Growth Rebalancing |
| 07/09/07 | The Global Cyclicals: Is the Multiple Expansion Phase Yet to Come? |
| 06/28/07 | Large-Capitalization Trading Model |
| 06/15/07 | The Mega-Caps: Are the Ducks in a Row, yet? Oil Prices and Global Capital Goods Demand, Home Prices and Subprime Mortgage Delinquencies |
| 06/11/07 | Bretton Woods II: The Precedent of Japan, Why Multiples Aren't Higher, The Housing Cycle: Losses Appear, Portfolio Changes and Performance |
| 05/25/07 | Retailers: No Bottom to Fish, The Buyout Boom - How Far Along? Value With a Catalyst Still Works, CAPX Soaring Almost Everywhere |
| 05/18/07 | The Global Capital Spending Super Cycle, The Messages of Our Fundamental Model, Funding Repurchases, Traders in the Driver's Seat, Failure Modeling |
| 05/08/07 | Earnings, Capital Goods Stocks, Private Equity Premiums, Anticipation of Good News |
| 04/17/07 | Bretton Woods II: Regime Change? Value's Great Run: Three Stories in One |
| 04/03/07 | Commonalities Among the Big Losers of the 2000s, The Fundamental Model, Small-Cap Stocks: Emerging Market Plays, Residual Reversal Revisited |
| 03/26/07 | More on the Secret to Portfolio Construction: Conviction; The Housing Downturn and Employment, Portfolio Changes and Performance |
| 03/19/07 | Is the Mortgage Credit Cycle a Game Changer? What Does the Deterioration in Profitability Mean? |
| 03/13/07 | Modeling the Unmodelable: Biotechnology and Media, When Do We Get Paid for an Earnings Surprise? The Distrusted Fifty |
| 03/02/07 | Where We Stand: Illustrated |
| 02/26/07 | Capital Spending is Booming - So What? Another Hurdle for Short Sellers: Spreads, Finally Positive Returns that Persist: Those of "Good" Deals |
| 02/20/07 | Short Sellers' Problem: Overcapacity, Sectors Where Earnings Revisions Still Help, Exploiting Declines in Capital Expenditures |
| 02/09/07 | The Earnings Picture: It's 1999 All Over Again, Value Stocks - Sometimes It Matters Where They've Been |
| 02/05/07 | Betting on Beta: Oil Services Versus Semiconductors, The Biggest Anomaly, Changes to Our Failure Methodology, Portfolio Performance and Changes |
| 01/26/07 | Why Free Cash Flow Works, Are Record Profit Margins a Problem from Here? More on Surprises – Negative Ones |
| 01/22/07 | Technology: Still Values? Can We Profit from Earnings Surprise Streaks? |
| 01/12/07 | Where We Stand, Energy Stocks: Are They Value Yet? Systemic Risk from Hedge Funds |
| 01/08/07 | The Hedgehog and the Fox, 2006 Model and Portfolio Performance and the Story It Tells, More on Sub-Prime Mortgages |
| 12/21/06 | Four Wishes |
| 12/18/06 | The Mortgage Credit Cycle: Payback Time? |
| 12/08/06 | Exploiting Value: How, When, Where and Now |
| 12/01/06 | Volatility: Friend or Foe? Does Corporate Governance Matter? Anomaly Watch: Electric Utilities Versus Energy Stocks, Options Backdating |
| 11/17/06 | Diagnosing 2006's Performance Problems, Is China a Perpetual Motion Machine? Anomaly Watch: Consumer Staples at Parity |
| 11/10/06 | Earnings Tell A Story and Capital Spending Does Too, Do Earnings Matter Less Than They Used To? Private Equity: Value Buyers |
| 11/02/06 | The Consumer By the Numbers, Anomaly Watch: The Valuation of Regional Banks, Does R&D Spending Matter? Mega-Growers, Portfolio Changes |
| 10/24/06 | Growth Stock Dynamics: Potential Tops Reality, A Holistic Approach to Payouts, Endowment Envy and Size |
| 10/16/06 | The Secret to Portfolio Construction: Confidence, The Margin Story for Small-Caps, Our Favorite Screens, Model Notes |
| 10/09/06 | Market Leadership and Monetary Policy, The Distribution of Income and Retailers, The New Economy Vindicated |
| 09/28/06 | Where We Stand, Energy Stock Valuations and Financials Involvement in Commodities, Capital Use and Its Consequences: Attrition in Free Cash Flow |
| 09/20/06 | Oil Service - Nobody Knows Nuttin'? Technology's Free Cash Flow Yields Redux, Large Versus Small By Sector, The Distrusted Fifty Updated |
| 09/11/06 | The Loss of Operating Leverage and the Mega-Cap Stocks, Retailers - All Tied Up, Portfolio Changes and Performance |
| 08/28/06 | Housing and Consumer Spending: The Downturn Worsens, Quantitative Models and Industry Bets, Tools for Picking Financial Stocks |
| 08/21/06 | What's Cheap Now and How Sure Should We Be? The Message from Capital Spending, Anomaly Watch: Hotels and Casinos Versus Retailers |
| 08/11/06 | Technology's Free Cash Flow Yields and Stock Performance, The Equity Risk Premium and Bearish CFOs, Failure Modeling |
| 08/04/06 | Interest Rates, the Consumer and Earnings: Leverage Rolls Over, Estimating Normal Free Cash Flow Yields, Big Growers and Fat Tails |
| 07/19/06 | Storm Fronts: What's Cheap Now, How Vulnerable are the Industrials to a Slowdown? Failure Modeling and Sector Bets |
| 07/14/06 | Are 5% Free Cash Flow Yields A Cushion? The Odds Facing Mega-Acquirers, Underfunding: Should We Care?, Growth Model Performance, Distrusted Fifty |
| 07/07/06 | More on Systematic Tools for Sector Betting, Valuation Spreads and Credit Default Swaps, Capital Spending Levels, Model Performance, Focus Portfolio Update |
| 06/27/06 | Systematic Tools for Sector Betting, Interpreting Energy's Single-Digit P/Es, Earnings Expectations: A Straight Line Extrapolation |
| 06/16/06 | Where's the Overshoot? Commodity Futures and the Stocks, Valuation of Companies with Underfunded Pension Plans |
| 06/06/06 | Inflation and Valuation Spreads, Capital Goods Stocks, Homebuilders, More on Deep Value, Portfolio Changes and Performance |
| 05/30/06 | Are Acquisitions Now A Good Thing? Big Is A Bit Better, Valuation of the Financials, More On Endowment Envy, The Housing Cycle and the CPI |
| 05/17/06 | The Big Picture, Earnings Streaks and Multiple Improvement, The Brokers and Respect, The Unwinding of the Housing Boom |
| 05/09/06 | The HMOs: At it Again? Capital Spending in Commodities Industries, Competition and Profitability, The Focus Portfolio |
| 05/02/06 | Dealing with Momentum Markets, Industrial Capital Spending Booms, Bank Stocks, Do Sell-Side Analysts Matter? The Distrusted Fifty Revisited |
| 04/20/06 | Deep Cyclicals: Over the Top? Telecommunications Services Versus Pharmaceuticals, Inflating Imports and the Consumer, Portfolio Performance and Changes |
| 04/07/06 | The Bond and The Cycle, The Deep Value Style: It's Late, Dealing with Overearning Cyclicals with Momentum, Rules for Picking Media Stocks |
| 03/21/06 | Agriculture Stocks, Oil Stocks, Focus Portfolio, Primary Trend and Model Enhancements |
| 03/13/06 | Picking Consumer Staples: Value Stocks In Growth Guise; Where We Stand, Portfolio Changes |
| 03/06/06 | Demographics, the Housing Cycle and the Consumer Stocks, Semiconductors Unbundled, The China Plays: Managements Onboard |
| 02/23/06 | The Metals: Still the Efficient China Call? A Little Model for Big Growers |
| 02/15/06 | A Value Horse Race, Updating Our Failure Models, The Focus Portfolio |
| 02/13/06 | The Mega-Caps: Out of Favor or Out of Luck? Where We Stand, Earnings, Portfolio Changes |
| 02/03/06 | One Good Chart Too Many? |
| 01/27/06 | Option Expensing, Valuation + Market Reaction, Price-to-Book |
| 01/20/06 | Distribution of Income, Outlook for Consumer Cyclicals |
| 01/12/06 | Integrated Oils, Low-PE and High-ROE, The Focus Portfolio |
| 01/05/06 | Where We Stand - The Capital is Back in Capitalism |
| 12/20/05 | Consumer Spending, Rates, Homebuilders and Portfolio Changes |
| 12/13/05 | Anomaly Watch - For the Biggest Growers, The Balance Sheet Tells Us If The Story's Played Out |
| 12/06/05 | Free Cash Flow, Big Growers & Balance Sheet Trends, Growth Stocks |
| 11/28/05 | Picking Health Care Stocks By the Numbers; Portfolio Performance and Changes |
| 11/14/05 | Map of the Market, Railroads, Buying the Dips |
| 11/04/05 | Oil Shocks, Earnings, Options, Modeling ADRs |
| 10/26/05 | Housing, Portfolio Performance and Changes |
| 10/18/05 | Balance Sheets, Capital Spending, Housing & Energy |
| 10/06/05 | Consumer Cyclicals - Distrusted Fifty |
| 09/29/05 | Energy, Large-Small vs. Small-Small, Hedge Funds |
| 09/19/05 | Corporate Bonds, Buybacks, Free Cash Flow, Options Indicator |
| 09/13/05 | Energy, The Consumer, Portfolio Changes |
| 08/29/05 | Energy, Industrial Commodity and Utility Stocks |
| 08/22/05 | Stock Options - Growth Stocks Free Cash Flow |
| 08/16/05 | Value Cycle, Technology vs. Media, Housing |
| 08/05/05 | Is the Momentum Market Back? |
| 07/26/05 | Top 10 Financials - Earnings Expectations |
| 07/18/05 | Return of Capital, Bretton Woods II and the Housing Boom, Capital Good Stocks |
| 07/12/05 | Anomaly Watch: Growth Within Growth is Cheap |
| 07/01/05 | Supply & Demand in China, Housing, Pattern Recognition, Energy, Portfolio Changes |
| 06/23/05 | Forecasting Failure at the Stock Level |
| 06/14/05 | The Yield Curve, Housing Boom, Corporate America |
| 06/07/05 | Fed Policy, Pattern Recognition and Growth Stocks, Short Interest |
| 06/01/05 | TMT The New Pragmatists, Dividends, Model Notes, Private Equity |
| 05/23/05 | Bretton Woods II, Disparities, The Consumer, Portfolio Changes |
| 04/26/05 | Dividend Yield |
| 04/15/05 | Growth Stocks in Purgatory, Cyclicals, Energy, Portfolio Changes |
| 04/06/05 | Expensing Stock Options - Attention Deficit Disorder |
| 03/28/05 | Blissful Retailers - A Compression Anomaly |
| 03/17/05 | Buybacks, Small-Cap GARP, Trend-Following in Growth Stocks |
| 03/10/05 | Mergers, Model Performance and Portfolio Changes |
| 03/02/05 | Inflation a Bugaboo - Energy Stocks |
| 02/23/05 | Capital Spending Has Turned - Implications for Portfolio Strategy |
| 02/15/05 | Reacting to Big Stock Moves - Do Analysts Still Act Incrementally |
| 02/08/05 | GARP, Earnings, Model Performance and Portfolio Changes |
| 01/31/05 | The Consumer - Borrowing Against Homes |
| 01/20/05 | Reacting to Earnings - Dividend Increases or Share Repurchase |
| 01/13/05 | Where We Stand: Hearts and Minds |
| 01/05/05 | Has Free Cash Flow Had Its Day?, Small-Cap Value Failure, Portfolio Changes |
| 12/16/04 | Basic Industry: Peril at the 20th Percentile? |
| 11/30/04 | Do Taxes Matter - Arbitrage Risk and Stock Failure Prediction |
| 11/17/04 | Earnings Literalness, Jobs, Energy and Portfolio Changes |
| 11/08/04 | Small-Capitalization Value Stock Selection Model |
| 10/26/04 | Anomaly Watch - Growth Stocks, Utilities, Energy |
| 10/20/04 | The Failure of Trend Following |
| 10/11/04 | Capital Spending and Its Consequences |
| 10/05/04 | Eluding Value Stock Torpedoes |
| 09/23/04 | Jobs, Jobs, Jobs - A Restructuring Story |
| 09/08/04 | Large-Capitalization Value Stock Selection Model |
| 08/24/04 | Is Housing A Bubble? |
| 08/11/04 | Pushing Out the Tails - Energy Fairly Valued |
| 08/03/04 | Beware of Headshots - Avoiding Small Capitalization Growth Stock Failure |
| 07/28/04 | The Uncertainty Principle Revisited |
| 07/22/04 | Microsoft’s Actions – The Empirical Evidence |
| 07/20/04 | Small-Capitalization Growth Stock Selection Model |
| 07/09/04 | Capacity Utilization, Cost Curves and Sustainability of Record Free Cash Flow |
| 06/29/04 | Energy, Financial Earnings, Growth Stock Focus Portfolio |
| 06/23/04 | Avoiding Growth Stock Failure |
| 06/21/04 | Large-Capitalization Growth Stock Selection Model |
| 05/26/04 | Avoiding Big Losers - A Systematic Approach |
| 05/20/04 | Anomaly Watch and Portfolio Changes |
| 05/06/04 | Earnings and Capital Spending - Implications for Risk Taking |
| 04/27/04 | Monetary Policy and Portfolio Construction |
| 04/20/04 | Small-Cap. Turnarounds Revisited |
| 04/14/04 | Picking Mega-Cap Winners |
| 04/08/04 | Our Inaugural Large-Capitalization Core Portfolio and Notes on Earnings and Stable Growth Stocks, Energy, Dividend Policy and Acquisitions |
| 03/23/04 | Large-Capitalization Core Stock Selection Model |
| 03/17/04 | Exploiting Earnings Quality to Identify Winning and Losing Stocks |
| 03/10/04 | Capital Spending - Convertible Bond Issuance |
| 02/26/04 | Capital Deployment, Financing and Their Consequences |
| 02/17/04 | The Case for a Procyclical Tilt is Still Largely Intact |
| 02/05/04 | Defining Value - Evidence, Our Approach, What's Cheap Now |
| 01/21/04 | Anomaly Watch and Notes on Consumer Cyclicals, Financials and Technology |
| 01/07/04 | Is Another Merger Boom On the Horizon? Implications for Stock Selection |
| 12/17/03 | Nobody Knows Nuttin' - A Case for Energy |
| 12/03/03 | Picking Technology Stocks: More than Just Momentum, A Lot More |
| 11/21/03 | Anomaly Watch and Three Brief Notes |
| 11/12/03 | Offense or Defense? Where We Stand |
| 10/29/03 | Buying R & D on the Cheap - An Update and Sectoral Implications |
| 10/20/03 | Picking Financial Stocks - The Industry-Level Evidence |
| 09/29/03 | Energy and Pharmaceuticals: Values? |
| 09/09/03 | Has Free Cash Flow Had Its Day? |
| 08/22/03 | The Consumer, Interest Rates and Consumer Cyclical Stocks |
| 08/01/03 | Are Technology Hardware Companies Today's Cyclicals? Is Free Cash Flow Really Free? The Case of the Underfunding of Defined Benefit Pension Plans |
| 07/24/03 | After Value, What? The Case for Capital Use |
| 07/02/03 | Financial Stocks and the Law of Small Numbers |
| 06/18/03 | Finding Small-Capitalization Turnaround Situations that Work |
| 06/10/03 | Cash Flow, Debt and Dividend Policy: Analysis and Implications for Stock Selection |
| 05/28/03 | Picking Free Cash Flow Winners |
| 05/20/03 | Consumer Debt: Analysis and Implications for Stock Selection |
| 05/12/03 | Buying R & D on the Cheap |
| 04/28/03 | Capital Spending |