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02/02/12Housing: Is the Glass Half-Full?
01/19/12Implications of a Turn in Credit, Rules for Picking Financials Stocks, Exploiting Regime
01/12/12China and the Precedent of Japan, Do More Jobs Mean Lower Margins?
01/06/12The Big Picture: Tail Tales
12/21/11Macroitis: Stock Pickers Frustrated, U.S. Housing: Moving Forward, Faster, China: Big Challenges, Big Policy Changes Lie Ahead, The Future of Money Management Industry: Bundling is Back
12/16/11Model Performance, Dividend Yield, Mega-Cap Stocks, Cash Flow Margins
12/05/11The Big Picture: Cold Turkey, What’s Cheap? Bretton Woods II and Free Cash Flow
11/30/11The Outlook for the High-End Consumer and the Stocks
11/18/11Picking Small-Cap Stocks: What’s Worked and Why, Earnings: The Capital Spending Recovery Continues, Anomaly Watch
11/11/11Post Crisis Blues: The Second-Half Improves, ETFs and Equity Correlations, Free Cash Flow-to-Enterprise Value: An Elixir
11/03/11Chinese Housing: The Hissing Sounds Grows Louder
10/28/11The Distrusted Fifty Turns Seven, Regime: Now Biased Toward Valuation, Modeling Economic Policy Uncertainty
10/21/11The Big Picture: Outfoxed?
10/18/11Dividend Yield Coveted, Dividend Growth Spurned
10/07/11The Big Picture: Spreads, Dread and Politics, Finding Failure: Seven Years On, Energy: Nearing the “Nobody Knows Nuttin’” Point
09/27/11The Big Picture: Certitude and Pragmatism, The Growth Stock Winners: Overdone? Exploiting Earnings Surprises, Technology Investment Cycles
09/19/11Health Care Stocks and the Precedent of Japan, The “China Plays” Revisited
09/12/11The Big Picture: Global Growth in Doubt, Is the U.S. Japan? Revisited
08/25/11The Consumer: How Vulnerable? The U.S., Europe and the Runaway Train, The Steep Cost of Political Gridlock
08/17/11Exhausted, and Engaging the Battle Once Again
08/10/11Out of Will? Out of Time? Out of Money?
08/03/11The Growth Stock Trading Model, Are Earnings “Beats” Exploitable? Earnings Stability in Context
07/27/11A Really Big Earnings Cycle, Manager Performance and the Whipsaw Effect, The Credit Cycle and the Banks, Market Valuation
07/14/11Consumer Cyclical Stocks: Act II, Modeling Media Stocks, Big Growers Revisited
07/07/11The Winners: Gross and Grosser, The Margin Story in Detail, Small Business Confidence and the Reversal Effect
06/30/11Schemes and Screens
06/27/11Energy: The Yin and Yang, Emerging Market Inflation, Housing’s Painfully Slow Workout
06/13/11Where We Stand: Crossroads – Part II, Margins: A Cost Story, Twice Told, Model and Portfolio Performance
06/02/11Mega-Cap Technology Stocks: Values? Exploiting Big Dividend Growth,China’s Currency Policy
05/25/11GARP’s Edge, Mass Market Retailers and the Business Cycle, Inflation Risks
05/16/11The Insatiable Demand for Hedging, The Credit Cycle Turns (Slowly), Do Compares Matter?
05/03/11Schemes and Screens
04/28/11Where We Stand: Crossroads, Do Small-Cap Value Stocks Go Bad? Model and Portfolio Performance
04/12/11Illustrated: Energy Prices and the Cycle, Employment, “Normal” Earnings, Portfolio Construction: The Empirical Evidence
04/05/11Quantitative Easing: Does it Matter? Consumer Staples: Neutral (Plus), Do Value Stocks Go Bad? Part Two
03/28/11Schemes and Screens
03/25/11Capital Spending and Confidence Turn Up: Implications for Earnings
03/22/11Do Value Stocks Go Bad? Three Interesting Papers, Exploiting Skew and Dispute
03/18/11Japan's Disaster, China's Exports and Inflation, Small Businesses and Employment Growth
03/09/11Oil: A Shock?
03/02/11The Big Picture and Oil Prices, Active Management and the Conviction Imperative, China's Savers
02/28/11Schemes and Screens
02/23/11Agricultural Commodity Prices, Profit Margins and the Threat of Inflation, High-End Consumers and the Consumer Cyclical Stocks, The Credit Cycle on Track
02/14/11Industrial Capital Equipment Stocks: High(er) Stakes Poker, Stock Picking Rules to Use at this Stage of the Recovery
02/07/11Technology's Capital Spending Booms: So What? Reading the Mind of the Market: For Now, Good is Good, Model and Portfolio Performance
02/02/11Earnings: The Survivalists Begin to Disarm, Bank Loan Growth and the Cycle, Reversal and the Growth Stock Leadership
01/19/11Schemes and Screens
01/13/11More on Lenders and the Cycle, Energy Prices and Consumer Spending: The Not-So-Bad News, Small-Cap's Edge: Going, Going, Not Yet Gone
01/10/11Bretton Woods II, Currencies and the China Plays, Anomaly Watch: Really-Big-Mo Growth Stocks, Model and Portfolio Performance
01/03/11The Consumer's Cycle and Timing the Lenders
12/20/10Where We Stand: Illustrated
12/16/10Schemes and Screens
12/13/10Retrenchment and Returns, China Housing, Retailers - Is the Story Played Out?
12/07/10Employment and Sector Betting: A Theory and Some Evidence, Exploiting Mispriced Growth Potential - Part II, Anomaly Watch: Free Cash Flow and Bond Yields
11/22/10The Large-Capitalization Core Stock Selection Model
11/19/10Screens and Schemes
11/17/10Illustrated: Over-Yielding Cyclicals, Anomaly Watch: "China Plays" and the Oils, A Top-Down Look at Health Care Revenues, The Demand for Equities
11/11/10The Big Picture: The Lure of the Specific, The Consumer: The Long Slog Back, Portfolio Performance and Changes
11/01/10Earnings, Operating Leverage and a Turn in Capital Spending, The Return of Momentum Investing? Performance of Our Models Since the 2007 Peak
10/15/10Where We Stand: Investment Cycles and Optionality, Bonus Depreciation and Capital Spending, A New Idea Machine
10/08/10Transports: Capital Deployment Stories, Harmless Mergers? Small-Cap Stocks, Reinvestment Rates and the Cycle
09/29/10More on Growth: Seen and Unseen, Productivity and Earnings Growth, Inflation, Budget Deficits and Slack
09/21/10Growth: Seen and Unseen, Earnings and the State of Operating Leverage, Two Unconventional Recession Indicators, Portfolio Changes and Performance
09/14/10Government Debt: Are We Doomed?
09/01/10Anomaly Watch: Stock Versus Corporate Bond Yields, Spreads and Dread, Business Cycle Uncertainty, Consumer Credit Quality
08/18/10The Big Picture: Path Dependent? Tactics in a High-Correlation Regime, Capital Spending and Equity Returns, China's Profits and Factor Returns
08/10/10Illustrated: The Biggest Anomaly - The Reluctance to Reinvest, Value Cycles, Commercial Real Estate and Unemployment
08/03/10Operating Leverage Redux, China's Bubble, Big Growers: Out of Favor
07/28/10Systematic Risk Within Sectors, Consumer Cyclicals: Still Exploiting Retreat, The Housing Cycle: Bouncing Along the Bottom
07/20/10The Big Picture, Technology: A Better Cyclical? Consumers' Creditworthiness, Disasters and the Equity Risk Premium
07/08/10Tax Policy: The Empirical Evidence, Regime Change and Risk Aversion
06/25/10The Employment Problem, Consumer Cyclicals and the Distrusted Fifty
06/22/10Systematic Risks and Portfolio Construction, Bretton Woods II Over? Or Not?
06/11/10The Big Picture: Aftershocks, Macroeconomic Indicators and the Market: A Test
06/03/10Energy and the Opportunity to Know Nothing
05/27/10Doubling Up: Combinations We Like
05/24/10Gross Profits: A Secret Weapon? Earnings, Operating Leverage and Market Valuation, Failure Inc.
05/19/10The European Sovereign Debt Crisis, In Context, Bedfellows: Private Equity and Easy Money
04/30/10The Big Picture: Illustrated
04/20/10The Consumer Cyclicals: A Tactical Perspective, Modeling Media Stocks, The China Plays and the Vacuum of Leadership
04/13/10The Financials: Still Values? Portfolio Changes and Performance
04/05/10Spreads and Dread: Act II, The Reckoning, Housing and the War of Wills, Retailers and the Small Base Effect
03/22/10The Consumer: Up, Down and Sideways, Consumer Staples 101, Bretton Woods II and Protectionism
03/16/10The Sweet Spot: Behavior and Cycles
03/09/10Is All That Balance Sheet Liquidity a Trap? Disputed Value Rolls On, Groupthink and Institutional Investors, Portfolio Changes and Performance
02/24/10Effective Stock Picking Tools to Help Portfolio Managers and Sector Analysts
02/22/10A Brief Note on Monetary Policy
02/18/10Technology: A Different Beast, Money Supply and the Market, Googling for Trading Ideas
02/10/10Where We Stand: The Yin and Yang
02/02/10The Consumer: Delevering, Spending and the Stocks, Small-Cap Stocks and the Abyss, Sector Betting Revisited
01/25/10Improving Tactical Decision Making, Pattern Recognition and the China Plays, Structural Unemployment, Modeling the Consequences of the Budget Deficit
01/19/10The Consumer: The High End and the Stocks, Uncertainty and the Duration of the Revaluation Cycle, Portfolio Changes
01/08/10Bretton Woods II: Pushed Too Far? Free Cash Flow and Working Capital Drawdowns, Model and Portfolio Performance, A Favorite Screen
12/21/09Where We Stand: Illustrated
12/15/09Housing: The War of Wills and Consumption, Predicting the Payoff from Trend Following, Portfolio Performance and Changes
12/08/09The Implications of 8% Free Cash Flow Yields, Large- Versus Small-Cap Stocks, Energy: Contango, Speculation and Valuation
12/01/09The Electric Utilities: Growth Stocks No More, Disputed Momentum, Information Ratios
11/13/09Cash for Cash Flow, Underreaction: Dead? Individualism and Trend Following, Model and Portfolio Performance
11/09/09Where We Stand: Midstream, Consumer Confidence: Can It Turn, Does It Matter? Five Years of the Distrusted Fifty
11/02/09Technology: Globalization and Free Cash Flow, The Earnings Outlook, Reflexivity and the Retail Investor, California Housing
10/23/09Free Cash Flow: Profiting from the Unsustainable, Synchronicity as a Virtue, Sentiment and the Returns to Trend Following
10/16/09The High-End Consumer: Pessimism Fading, Cash Piled Up Everywhere: So What? Regime Shift, Model and Portfolio Performance
10/09/09Crisis Watch: Telling the Right Story, Now's the Time to be Active, The Message from ETF Flows, Housing: Timing is Everything
09/21/09First In, First Out? The Hot Market States Revisited, Finding Failure: Five Years On, Disputed Value Remains Potent
09/10/09The Big Picture: Further Along, But Not Yet at Our Destination, Quant Managers and the Cycle, Portfolio Performance and Changes
08/27/09Illustrated: Spreads and Dread, Is Quality Cheap? The Natural Gas Stocks and Nothingness, The New World Order and Stock Picking
08/24/09The U.S. Consumer: Struggling Back to the Shore?
08/17/09Equities and the Appetite for Risk: Is This the Big One? Valuation and the Value Indices, Four Potent Screens
08/11/09Where We Stand: A Classic Crisis, Second Quarter Earnings: More of the Same, Another January Effect, Model and Portfolio Performance
07/31/09Inflation and the Irrational Left Tail
07/24/09Technology and the Other Cyclicals: Too Far Too Fast? Understanding Multiples and Growth Rates, Exploiting Regimes in Growth Stock Investing
07/16/09Technology - End of the Lost Decade? Housing: The Administration Tries Again, The Timing Looks Right for Our Trading Model
07/10/09Unemployment: Bad Moon Rising? Regime Change - No Longer Just Valuation, Model and Portfolio Performance and Changes
07/01/09Growth Stock Selection Strategy, California Real Estate, Utilities: Increasingly, Nobody Knows Nuttin'
06/22/09The Mega-Revaluation Cycle: More to Come? Institutional Investors "Derisk," Free Cash Flow in Growth, Dilution: Not a Big Headwind
06/16/09Commodity Stocks: Too Far, Too Fast? Consumer Durables: Big(ger) Swingers, Stubborn Unemployment, Inefficient Companies Make Better Stocks
06/08/09The Big Picture, The High-End Consumer is a Super-Cyclical, Mid-Cycle Earnings Power, Portfolio Performance and Changes
05/21/09Energy Stocks: Volatility and Optionality, Retailer Managements Retreat - A Bullish Sign, Exploiting the Unprecedented Cuts in S,G&A Expense
05/11/09Illustrated: A Mega Valuation Cycle is Underway, Disputed Value: More to Go, Knowing the Regime Helps, Normal Earnings are in Phase
05/08/09Stock Picking Tools for Small-Cap Analysts - Exploiting a Systematic Edge
05/01/09Technology's Inventory Drawdown and Stock Picking, Portfolio Manager Risk Taking, First-Quarter Earnings, California Housing - Turning?
04/24/09Recoveries from Financial Crises Have Been Different, The Triumph of Value Within Growth, Model and Portfolio Performance and Changes
04/16/09The Big Picture: The Need for a Plan, Value Cycles: Duration and Dispute, Stocks Versus Bonds Revisited, More on Mortgage Modifications
04/06/09What Worked in the Great Depression and Japan's Lost Decade, Finding Virtue in Stability, Is the Equity Ownership Era Over?
03/30/09Hedgehogs and the Value Cycle, The Friendly Nature of Small Numbers, China's Deflation-Producing Machine, The Real Risk: Protectionism
03/24/09Consumer Cyclical Stocks: Managements Capitulate - A Good Sign, Model and Portfolio Performance and Changes
03/19/09Stock Picking Tools for Analysts - Finding a Systematic Edge
03/13/09The Big Picture: Dividends, Deflation and Multiples, Earnings: Both Bad and Good, Commodities: For Three Centuries, Nobody's Known Nuttin'
03/02/09Bretton Woods II Lives On, The Margin Collapse in Global Cyclicals, The High-End Consumer and Wealth Effects, Retailers: GARP Stocks, Now and Forever
02/23/09Consumer Debt: Suffocating? The Government as a Prime Broker, Portfolio Performance and Changes
02/13/09Hope, Despair and Pragmatism, Technology Versus Staples, Commercial Real Estate: The Good, the Bad and the Uglier
02/05/09In Praise of GARP, Fourth Quarter Earnings and Free Cash Flow, Housing and Cram Downs, Sponsors Revise Down
01/20/09Stimulus, Enough to Matter? Technology: Virtue and Virtuous, Estimating Normal
01/09/09The Big Picture, Messages From Value's Recovery, Housing: A String, Not a Spring, Performance and Portfolio Changes
12/19/08Something's Happening Here (Probably) - One of the Biggest Months for Valuation Ever
12/17/08Bond Leadership? Growth Managers: Spreads and Dread, Contagion and Opportunities in Global Cyclicals
12/08/08Will: The U.S. and the Precedent of Japan's Lost Decade
11/25/08Illustrated: The Big Picture: Stocks, Bonds and More, China's Capacity and Deflation Risks, Energy Rising, High Versus Low-End Consumer Cyclicals, Free Cash Flow Return Premia
11/18/08The Hedge Fund Bust and the Big Picture, The Consumer: A Long Drought? Exploiting Arbitrage Risk at a Turning Point
11/03/08What Leads in Recoveries? Stock and Bond Coupling, Margins Hold Up Well, Using Normalized Earnings in Small-Cap
10/23/08Market Valuation, Using Estimates of Normal Earnings and Cash Flow, Valuation Spreads Are Now Extreme Almost Everywhere
10/15/08The Big Picture, Global Cyclicals and Leadership
10/07/08The Sad History of Banking Crises, The Happier History of Low-Priced Bank Acquisitions, Free Cash Flow and Cash Hoards
09/25/08The Fog of War, Lessons from the Great Depression, Valuation Comes Back, The Earnings Picture: It's All About the Global Cyclicals
09/15/08The Global Cyclicals: After the Sell-Off, Value - A Bounce or a Turn? Model Performance, The Consumer and Contagion
09/08/08The Large-Capitalization Core Stock Selection Model - Taking the Next Step Forward
08/27/08Global Cyclicals: After the Deluge, Values? Consumer Staples: One Leg to Stand On, Housing and Rolling Regional Recessions
08/19/08Correlations Gone Wild, Short Interest, Growth Stock Investing: In Praise of Free Cash Flow
08/12/08Evidence of Global Economic Contagion, The Financials: Tale of the Tape, What Works When Picking Energy Stocks
08/01/08Dispute and the Turn in Momentum Stocks, Home Prices and Contagious Disease, Earnings: Impressive Again, High Free Cash Flow Yields Lead
07/25/08The Consumer: Is This the Big One?
07/15/08Bretton Woods II: Close to the End? Recession, the Consumer, Corporations and Purgatory, Regime Indicator Now Neutral
07/10/08Anomaly Watch - Momentum Boom and Value Bust, Pharmaceuticals: Defensive? Energy's Capital Efficiency, Failure Modeling Results, Growth Universe Rebalancing
07/01/08The Big Picture, Demand Destruction: The Message from the Hot Markets, Spreads and Dread, Dumb Money
06/20/08Recession Risk, Lessons from the Hot Markets, Earnings Revisions and the State of the Cycle, China: The Boom, Streaks and Trend Following, Hedge Funds and Turning Points
06/12/08Perpetual Motion Once Again, Timing Value, Recession in the Hot Markets, Inflation Hedges
05/29/08Momentum Markets, Commodity Investors, Home Sales, Capital Goods, Free Cash Flow
05/06/08Shadow Boxing and Trends, Commodities and Interest Rates, Earnings, the Credit Cycle, Technology
04/21/08Bretton Woods II, Momentum Anomalies, HMOs, Credit Cycle
04/08/08The Big Picture: Wages of Sin, The Equity Yield Curve, Financials' Discounted ROEs
03/25/08Financials, Global Cyclicals, Big-Cap Growth, Hedge Funds
03/18/08Valuation Spreads and Recessions, Failure Modeling, Threats to Bretton Woods II, Trend-Following
03/05/08Anomaly Watch: Technology's Yields, Earnings Outlook, High ROE, Distrusted Fifty Updated
02/26/08Commercial Real Estate: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly, Financial Delevering
02/15/08China's Capital Spending & Contagion, Trend-Following, Big Growers, PVF Transactions
02/08/08Valuation Spreads Widen: The Implications for Stock Picking
02/06/08The Housing Cycle, Earnings, Dividend Cuts & Distress, Portfolio Performance
01/29/08Big Picture, Recession Playbook, Financials, Retailers, Gradual Regime Shift
01/18/08Finding An All-Weather Advantage, The Global Cyclicals: High Stakes Poker, When Do Trends Cease to Matter? The Message from Corporate Bond Performance
01/10/08Brinksmanship
12/19/07Same As It Ever Was, Same As It Never Was
12/14/07Where We Stand, Does Bond Performance Tell Us What Stocks to Buy? Consequences of Dividend Cuts, What Book to Use, Subprime Relief - Does it Matter?
12/06/07The U.S., China and the Deep Cyclicals, Home Ownership and the Housing Cycle, Consumer Cyclicals: Not Ripe for Bottom Fishing
11/26/07Extremities, The Housing Cycle, Gauging the Risk of Recession, Deep Cyclicals and the 1956 Precedent, The Distrusted Fifty Updated
11/13/07Financial Stock Valuations, Earnings, A Regime-Sensitive Small-Cap Model
11/02/07Timing the Financials, A Classic Growth Stock Cycle, Inflation Threats Assessed
10/23/07Profit Margins and Regression to the Mean, Earnings Expectations: Do They Matter? The Brokerage Firms: Values or Fractured Momentum Stocks?
10/16/07Growth Stocks As Leaders: Is What's Happening Unusual? A Regime-Sensitive Model, The Four Horsemen Ride Again, Hedge Fund Correlations
10/09/07Anomaly Watch: Pattern Recognition Gone Wild? Technology: A Late Cycle Play? More on Housing and Consumer Spending, Portfolio Changes and Performance
10/02/07The Dollar and Bretton Woods II, The Housing Adjustment and Consumer Cyclicals, More on What Works When Growth Stocks Lead, Fund of Funds Performance
09/24/07The Momentum Market: More to Come? The Financials, The Fed and the Credit Cycle: The 1989-92 Precedent
09/14/07Illustrated: The Cycle, When Growth Takes Over From Value, Size Matters; The Future of the Money Management Industry - A Brief Update
09/07/07The Fed, the Cycle and Financial Stocks, The Consumer: Near the Breaking Point? The Distrusted Fifty Updated
08/27/07What's the Matter with Quant Models? The Answer: A Turning Point + Leverage, Utilities: What Counts, Combining Our Investment and Trading Models
08/15/07Betwixt and Between
08/07/07The Mortgage Credit Crunch: Where We Stand
07/26/07The Run in Global Cyclicals: How Will We Know When the End is Near? Countrywide, Housing and the Financials, the Small-Capitalization Trading Model
07/20/07Technology - One Year Later, Trading Rules, Dividend Growth Counts - Occasionally
07/16/07FAQs: Subprime ARM Repricings, Energy: Elasticity of Demand, Seasonality and Momentum, Convertibles with Big Premiums, Modeling Micro-Caps,Growth Rebalancing
07/09/07The Global Cyclicals: Is the Multiple Expansion Phase Yet to Come?
06/28/07Large-Capitalization Trading Model
06/15/07The Mega-Caps: Are the Ducks in a Row, yet? Oil Prices and Global Capital Goods Demand, Home Prices and Subprime Mortgage Delinquencies
06/11/07Bretton Woods II: The Precedent of Japan, Why Multiples Aren't Higher, The Housing Cycle: Losses Appear, Portfolio Changes and Performance
05/25/07Retailers: No Bottom to Fish, The Buyout Boom - How Far Along? Value With a Catalyst Still Works, CAPX Soaring Almost Everywhere
05/18/07The Global Capital Spending Super Cycle, The Messages of Our Fundamental Model, Funding Repurchases, Traders in the Driver's Seat, Failure Modeling
05/08/07Earnings, Capital Goods Stocks, Private Equity Premiums, Anticipation of Good News
04/17/07Bretton Woods II: Regime Change? Value's Great Run: Three Stories in One
04/03/07Commonalities Among the Big Losers of the 2000s, The Fundamental Model, Small-Cap Stocks: Emerging Market Plays, Residual Reversal Revisited
03/26/07More on the Secret to Portfolio Construction: Conviction; The Housing Downturn and Employment, Portfolio Changes and Performance
03/19/07Is the Mortgage Credit Cycle a Game Changer? What Does the Deterioration in Profitability Mean?
03/13/07Modeling the Unmodelable: Biotechnology and Media, When Do We Get Paid for an Earnings Surprise? The Distrusted Fifty
03/02/07Where We Stand: Illustrated
02/26/07Capital Spending is Booming - So What? Another Hurdle for Short Sellers: Spreads, Finally Positive Returns that Persist: Those of "Good" Deals
02/20/07Short Sellers' Problem: Overcapacity, Sectors Where Earnings Revisions Still Help, Exploiting Declines in Capital Expenditures
02/09/07The Earnings Picture: It's 1999 All Over Again, Value Stocks - Sometimes It Matters Where They've Been
02/05/07Betting on Beta: Oil Services Versus Semiconductors, The Biggest Anomaly, Changes to Our Failure Methodology, Portfolio Performance and Changes
01/26/07Why Free Cash Flow Works, Are Record Profit Margins a Problem from Here? More on Surprises – Negative Ones
01/22/07Technology: Still Values? Can We Profit from Earnings Surprise Streaks?
01/12/07Where We Stand, Energy Stocks: Are They Value Yet? Systemic Risk from Hedge Funds
01/08/07The Hedgehog and the Fox, 2006 Model and Portfolio Performance and the Story It Tells, More on Sub-Prime Mortgages
12/21/06Four Wishes
12/18/06The Mortgage Credit Cycle: Payback Time?
12/08/06Exploiting Value: How, When, Where and Now
12/01/06Volatility: Friend or Foe? Does Corporate Governance Matter? Anomaly Watch: Electric Utilities Versus Energy Stocks, Options Backdating
11/17/06Diagnosing 2006's Performance Problems, Is China a Perpetual Motion Machine? Anomaly Watch: Consumer Staples at Parity
11/10/06Earnings Tell A Story and Capital Spending Does Too, Do Earnings Matter Less Than They Used To? Private Equity: Value Buyers
11/02/06The Consumer By the Numbers, Anomaly Watch: The Valuation of Regional Banks, Does R&D Spending Matter? Mega-Growers, Portfolio Changes
10/24/06Growth Stock Dynamics: Potential Tops Reality, A Holistic Approach to Payouts, Endowment Envy and Size
10/16/06The Secret to Portfolio Construction: Confidence, The Margin Story for Small-Caps, Our Favorite Screens, Model Notes
10/09/06Market Leadership and Monetary Policy, The Distribution of Income and Retailers, The New Economy Vindicated
09/28/06Where We Stand, Energy Stock Valuations and Financials Involvement in Commodities, Capital Use and Its Consequences: Attrition in Free Cash Flow
09/20/06Oil Service - Nobody Knows Nuttin'? Technology's Free Cash Flow Yields Redux, Large Versus Small By Sector, The Distrusted Fifty Updated
09/11/06The Loss of Operating Leverage and the Mega-Cap Stocks, Retailers - All Tied Up, Portfolio Changes and Performance
08/28/06Housing and Consumer Spending: The Downturn Worsens, Quantitative Models and Industry Bets, Tools for Picking Financial Stocks
08/21/06What's Cheap Now and How Sure Should We Be? The Message from Capital Spending, Anomaly Watch: Hotels and Casinos Versus Retailers
08/11/06Technology's Free Cash Flow Yields and Stock Performance, The Equity Risk Premium and Bearish CFOs, Failure Modeling
08/04/06Interest Rates, the Consumer and Earnings: Leverage Rolls Over, Estimating Normal Free Cash Flow Yields, Big Growers and Fat Tails
07/19/06Storm Fronts: What's Cheap Now, How Vulnerable are the Industrials to a Slowdown? Failure Modeling and Sector Bets
07/14/06Are 5% Free Cash Flow Yields A Cushion? The Odds Facing Mega-Acquirers, Underfunding: Should We Care?, Growth Model Performance, Distrusted Fifty
07/07/06More on Systematic Tools for Sector Betting, Valuation Spreads and Credit Default Swaps, Capital Spending Levels, Model Performance, Focus Portfolio Update
06/27/06Systematic Tools for Sector Betting, Interpreting Energy's Single-Digit P/Es, Earnings Expectations: A Straight Line Extrapolation
06/16/06Where's the Overshoot? Commodity Futures and the Stocks, Valuation of Companies with Underfunded Pension Plans
06/06/06Inflation and Valuation Spreads, Capital Goods Stocks, Homebuilders, More on Deep Value, Portfolio Changes and Performance
05/30/06Are Acquisitions Now A Good Thing? Big Is A Bit Better, Valuation of the Financials, More On Endowment Envy, The Housing Cycle and the CPI
05/17/06The Big Picture, Earnings Streaks and Multiple Improvement, The Brokers and Respect, The Unwinding of the Housing Boom
05/09/06The HMOs: At it Again? Capital Spending in Commodities Industries, Competition and Profitability, The Focus Portfolio
05/02/06Dealing with Momentum Markets, Industrial Capital Spending Booms, Bank Stocks, Do Sell-Side Analysts Matter? The Distrusted Fifty Revisited
04/20/06Deep Cyclicals: Over the Top? Telecommunications Services Versus Pharmaceuticals, Inflating Imports and the Consumer, Portfolio Performance and Changes
04/07/06The Bond and The Cycle, The Deep Value Style: It's Late, Dealing with Overearning Cyclicals with Momentum, Rules for Picking Media Stocks
03/21/06Agriculture Stocks, Oil Stocks, Focus Portfolio, Primary Trend and Model Enhancements
03/13/06Picking Consumer Staples: Value Stocks In Growth Guise; Where We Stand, Portfolio Changes
03/06/06Demographics, the Housing Cycle and the Consumer Stocks, Semiconductors Unbundled, The China Plays: Managements Onboard
02/23/06The Metals: Still the Efficient China Call? A Little Model for Big Growers
02/15/06A Value Horse Race, Updating Our Failure Models, The Focus Portfolio
02/13/06The Mega-Caps: Out of Favor or Out of Luck? Where We Stand, Earnings, Portfolio Changes
02/03/06One Good Chart Too Many?
01/27/06Option Expensing, Valuation + Market Reaction, Price-to-Book
01/20/06Distribution of Income, Outlook for Consumer Cyclicals
01/12/06Integrated Oils, Low-PE and High-ROE, The Focus Portfolio
01/05/06Where We Stand - The Capital is Back in Capitalism
12/20/05Consumer Spending, Rates, Homebuilders and Portfolio Changes
12/13/05Anomaly Watch - For the Biggest Growers, The Balance Sheet Tells Us If The Story's Played Out
12/06/05Free Cash Flow, Big Growers & Balance Sheet Trends, Growth Stocks
11/28/05Picking Health Care Stocks By the Numbers; Portfolio Performance and Changes
11/14/05Map of the Market, Railroads, Buying the Dips
11/04/05Oil Shocks, Earnings, Options, Modeling ADRs
10/26/05Housing, Portfolio Performance and Changes
10/18/05Balance Sheets, Capital Spending, Housing & Energy
10/06/05Consumer Cyclicals - Distrusted Fifty
09/29/05Energy, Large-Small vs. Small-Small, Hedge Funds
09/19/05Corporate Bonds, Buybacks, Free Cash Flow, Options Indicator
09/13/05Energy, The Consumer, Portfolio Changes
08/29/05Energy, Industrial Commodity and Utility Stocks
08/22/05Stock Options - Growth Stocks Free Cash Flow
08/16/05Value Cycle, Technology vs. Media, Housing
08/05/05Is the Momentum Market Back?
07/26/05Top 10 Financials - Earnings Expectations
07/18/05Return of Capital, Bretton Woods II and the Housing Boom, Capital Good Stocks
07/12/05Anomaly Watch: Growth Within Growth is Cheap
07/01/05Supply & Demand in China, Housing, Pattern Recognition, Energy, Portfolio Changes
06/23/05Forecasting Failure at the Stock Level
06/14/05The Yield Curve, Housing Boom, Corporate America
06/07/05Fed Policy, Pattern Recognition and Growth Stocks, Short Interest
06/01/05TMT The New Pragmatists, Dividends, Model Notes, Private Equity
05/23/05Bretton Woods II, Disparities, The Consumer, Portfolio Changes
04/26/05Dividend Yield
04/15/05Growth Stocks in Purgatory, Cyclicals, Energy, Portfolio Changes
04/06/05Expensing Stock Options - Attention Deficit Disorder
03/28/05Blissful Retailers - A Compression Anomaly
03/17/05Buybacks, Small-Cap GARP, Trend-Following in Growth Stocks
03/10/05Mergers, Model Performance and Portfolio Changes
03/02/05Inflation a Bugaboo - Energy Stocks
02/23/05Capital Spending Has Turned - Implications for Portfolio Strategy
02/15/05Reacting to Big Stock Moves - Do Analysts Still Act Incrementally
02/08/05GARP, Earnings, Model Performance and Portfolio Changes
01/31/05The Consumer - Borrowing Against Homes
01/20/05Reacting to Earnings - Dividend Increases or Share Repurchase
01/13/05Where We Stand: Hearts and Minds
01/05/05Has Free Cash Flow Had Its Day?, Small-Cap Value Failure, Portfolio Changes
12/16/04Basic Industry: Peril at the 20th Percentile?
11/30/04Do Taxes Matter - Arbitrage Risk and Stock Failure Prediction
11/17/04Earnings Literalness, Jobs, Energy and Portfolio Changes
11/08/04Small-Capitalization Value Stock Selection Model
10/26/04Anomaly Watch - Growth Stocks, Utilities, Energy
10/20/04The Failure of Trend Following
10/11/04Capital Spending and Its Consequences
10/05/04Eluding Value Stock Torpedoes
09/23/04Jobs, Jobs, Jobs - A Restructuring Story
09/08/04Large-Capitalization Value Stock Selection Model
08/24/04Is Housing A Bubble?
08/11/04Pushing Out the Tails - Energy Fairly Valued
08/03/04Beware of Headshots - Avoiding Small Capitalization Growth Stock Failure
07/28/04The Uncertainty Principle Revisited
07/22/04Microsoft’s Actions – The Empirical Evidence
07/20/04Small-Capitalization Growth Stock Selection Model
07/09/04Capacity Utilization, Cost Curves and Sustainability of Record Free Cash Flow
06/29/04Energy, Financial Earnings, Growth Stock Focus Portfolio
06/23/04Avoiding Growth Stock Failure
06/21/04Large-Capitalization Growth Stock Selection Model
05/26/04Avoiding Big Losers - A Systematic Approach
05/20/04Anomaly Watch and Portfolio Changes
05/06/04Earnings and Capital Spending - Implications for Risk Taking
04/27/04Monetary Policy and Portfolio Construction
04/20/04Small-Cap. Turnarounds Revisited
04/14/04Picking Mega-Cap Winners
04/08/04Our Inaugural Large-Capitalization Core Portfolio and Notes on Earnings and Stable Growth Stocks, Energy, Dividend Policy and Acquisitions
03/23/04Large-Capitalization Core Stock Selection Model
03/17/04Exploiting Earnings Quality to Identify Winning and Losing Stocks
03/10/04Capital Spending - Convertible Bond Issuance
02/26/04Capital Deployment, Financing and Their Consequences
02/17/04The Case for a Procyclical Tilt is Still Largely Intact
02/05/04Defining Value - Evidence, Our Approach, What's Cheap Now
01/21/04Anomaly Watch and Notes on Consumer Cyclicals, Financials and Technology
01/07/04Is Another Merger Boom On the Horizon? Implications for Stock Selection
12/17/03Nobody Knows Nuttin' - A Case for Energy
12/03/03Picking Technology Stocks: More than Just Momentum, A Lot More
11/21/03Anomaly Watch and Three Brief Notes
11/12/03Offense or Defense? Where We Stand
10/29/03Buying R & D on the Cheap - An Update and Sectoral Implications
10/20/03Picking Financial Stocks - The Industry-Level Evidence
09/29/03Energy and Pharmaceuticals: Values?
09/09/03Has Free Cash Flow Had Its Day?
08/22/03The Consumer, Interest Rates and Consumer Cyclical Stocks
08/01/03Are Technology Hardware Companies Today's Cyclicals? Is Free Cash Flow Really Free? The Case of the Underfunding of Defined Benefit Pension Plans
07/24/03After Value, What? The Case for Capital Use
07/02/03Financial Stocks and the Law of Small Numbers
06/18/03Finding Small-Capitalization Turnaround Situations that Work
06/10/03Cash Flow, Debt and Dividend Policy: Analysis and Implications for Stock Selection
05/28/03Picking Free Cash Flow Winners
05/20/03Consumer Debt: Analysis and Implications for Stock Selection
05/12/03Buying R & D on the Cheap
04/28/03Capital Spending
07/21/11The Money Management Industry: Recent Research - The Rise of Absolute Return
01/24/11The Money Management Industry: Recent Research
10/21/10The Money Management Industry: Recent Research
08/26/10The Money Management Industry: Recent Research
06/02/10The Money Management Industry: Recent Research
04/28/10The Money Management Industry: Recent Research
03/15/10The Money Management Industry: Recent Research
01/05/10The Money Management Industry: Recent Research
11/24/09The Money Management Industry: Recent Research
11/20/09The Hedge Fund Business: Crossing Over
09/25/09The Future of the Money Management Industry - Pressured
01/30/09The Future of the Money Management Industry - High Water Everywhere, After the Deluge?
05/16/08The Future of the Money Management Industry - Mutual Funds: Win, Lose and Draw
01/03/08The Future of the Money Management Industry - Pension Markets Undone, Global Distribution, 130/30, Subadvisory: A Steamroller?
05/31/07The Future of the Money Management Industry - A Brief Update
04/26/07The Future of the Money Management Industry - The Retirement Markets - Calling All Heroes
07/27/06The Future of the Money Management Industry - An Update
04/03/06The Future of the Money Management Industry - The Great Divide
05/04/05The Future of the Money Management Industry - Triumph of the Pessimists
06/10/04The Future of the Money Management Industry - The Day After Tomorrow Has Arrived
10/09/03The Future of the Money Management Industry - A Brief Update
02/21/03The Future of the Money Management Industry 2003
01/11/12Buying Time For Europe, The EM Plays, FCF in EM, EAFE Model Portfolio
12/20/11ECB Actions Important, EM Model 2yr Performance, Distrusted 50
12/08/11Stock Picking in the U.K. - Expanding the Coverage of Our Model
11/15/11Uncertainty in Europe Comes Home to Roost, Updating Our Portfolios, A Note on European Banks
11/09/11Emerging Markets Portfolio StrategyEM Falls Victim to Global De-Risking, Mid-Cap Valuation Opportunities in the Tech Sector
10/19/11Which Sectors Outperform Following Bank Recaps, Updating Our International Portfolio
10/12/11Bank Recapitalizations - The Bell Tolls?
09/27/11History Lessons: What Can Europe Learn From the U.S. Experience of 1937?
09/09/11 Recapitalizing Europe’s Banks, Opportunities in the Turmoil
08/16/11Europe's Debt Crisis - What Will End It, Japan - The Virtue of Low Expectations
07/28/11Our Models Outperform in Q2, Free Cash Flow Yield Proves Helpful Across EM
07/05/11Finding Opportunities in Europe’s Debt Mess, Updating the Pan-European Model Portfolio
06/14/11Do International Value Stocks Go Bad, Updating the World Portfolio
05/26/11European Margins, UK Consumer Stocks, Pragmatic Dividends, Distrusted 50
05/10/11Buy Japanese Exporters, Europe's Sovereign Debt Woes Resurface, Model Performance
04/26/11Where We Stand Q2 2011
04/13/11Global Portfolio Strategy: Opportunity in Japan, Oil Price Volatility, Robust Model Portfolio Performance
03/17/11Global Portfolio Strategy: Tragedy in Japan, Europe's Profit Recovery Continues, Oil and the Emerging Markets, Updating the Distrusted Fifty
03/02/11Introducing the World Large-Cap Model Portfolio
02/22/11Inflation Risks, China and the China Plays, Introducing Our EM Growth Universe
01/31/11Global Strategy Review: Retain a Pro-Cyclical Bias: Overweight Capital Goods, Technology, Financials and Consumer Durables
01/25/11Should We Use Free Cash Flow Yield to Pick Stocks When Capital Spending is Rising? Robust Emerging Markets and World Model Performance in 2010
01/07/11Japan Update: Sovereign Debts, Valuation and the Financials, Developed World Models' Performance: 2010 Was a Solid Year
12/20/10Emerging Markets Cycle Progressing As Expected, Free Cash Flow Yield in the Developed Markets (ex-U.S.), EM Financials, Revisiting World Stock Selection
12/16/10Japan: Moving to Neutral from Underweight, Updating Our International and Pan-European Model Portfolios
11/30/10Modeling Dispute in the Emerging Markets, Early Success for the Pan-European Failure Model, Updating the International Distrusted Fifty
11/08/10Emerging Markets: Review of Our Model's First Year Performance, Our Favorite Screen Revisited, Equity Correlations, Exploiting Gross Profits-to-Market Cap
11/02/10Solid Start for the World Stock Selection Model in a Tricky Quarter, How Sustainable is the Improvement in European Profitability?
10/12/10A Pan-European Regime-Sensitive Stock Selection Model, Exploiting Gross Profits in Our Valuation Framework
09/30/10Japan: FX Intervention and Equity Performance, Chinese Consumers' Preferences and Stock Selection, Using Dividend Yield in EM, Stock Selection Results by Style
09/20/10Pragmatic Dividend Strategies, Updating Our Model Portfolios
09/10/10Equity Strategies That Work in High-Correlation Markets, Modeling Within the Emerging Markets, Updating the International Distrusted Fifty
08/24/10Equity Performance During Periods of Austerity (Part II), What Level of "Normal" Profitability is Discounted by Pan-European Financials?
08/16/10International Modeling 2008-2010: Two Crises, One Recovery, +17 Points of Alpha, Reviewing Q2 Performance
08/09/10The Chinese Consumer: Big Enough to Matter? Introducing the Pan-European Failure Model
07/22/10Equity Performance During Periods of Austerity, Systematic Risks Dominate, Time for European Financials? Introducing a Pan-European Model Portfolio
07/07/10World Sector Analytics - Effective Stock Picking for Analysts
06/15/10After the Sell Off: Five Ideas
05/26/10Following the Sell-Off: Four Ideas
05/17/10The Next Capital Spending Cycle: When, Where, Why and How?
04/26/10Introducing the World Stock Selection Model - An Integrated Approach to Picking Stocks
04/08/10Revenues Drive EM Earnings Recovery, EM Energy Remains Attractive, Disputed Value: Still Generating Alpha, First Anniversary of the International Distrusted Fifty
03/30/10Earnings Show Exceptional Operating Leverage, Picking Stocks Within the U.K., EFfects of China's Yuan Policy
03/16/10International Large-Cap Stock Selection, Stock Picking Tools for Portfolio Managers, Introducing the International Large-Cap Model Portfolio
03/03/10Why Stock Picking in EM is Different From That in the Developed World, Sovereign Risk Revisited, Canadian Financial and Energy Issues Remain Attractive
02/11/10Focus on Dividends Supported by Cash Flow, Our Favorite Emerging Market Screens, Using Our EM Framework Within Country, Updating the International Distrusted Fifty
02/04/10Regime Approaching Neutral, Is This Recovery Consistent with Precedents? Examining Risks in the European Financials, A Banner Year for Our Models
01/11/10On Normalized Metrics Emerging Markets Not Yet Expensive, EM Technology: Still Attractive, What are Japanese Spreads Telling Us? Inexpensive = Alpha in 2009
12/21/09The Futures Curve and the Valuation of the Commodity Sectors, Are We Getting Paid for Emerging Market Return Volatility? Large-Caps Have the Edge Over Small-Caps
12/11/09Now is the Time to Exploit Inexpensive Stocks With Improving Trends, Quality: On the Cheap? Retailers: Opportunities Diminish as the Stocks Outperform, U.K. Remains Our Preferred Region
11/30/09Illustrated: Management Actions Impact Latest Earnings, Disputed Value Has Further to Go, Tech Hardware Revaluation Incomplete, Updating the International Distrusted Fifty
11/18/09Recovery: A Study in Anticipation, The Cyclicals: Operating Leverage and Exports, Regional Disparities Emerge - Remain Underweight Japan, Model Performance
10/27/09The Emerging Markets Stock Selection Model
10/06/09Emerging Market Modelling (Part II): Using Capital Deployment and Earnings Quality to Pick Stocks
09/28/09The Emerging Markets: Valuation - The Secret Weapon
09/11/09Valuation Spreads Narrow Further as Investors Reward Retrenchment, Diverging Outlooks for Regional Unemployment, The International Distrusted Fifty
08/26/09Dividends - Pared, but Yield Still Helpful, Focusing on Inexpensive Financials, Credit and European Growth Prospects, The Yin and Yang of Large Cap vs. Small Cap
08/06/09Illustrated: Margins Hold Up, The Time is Right for Regional Betting, U.K. Housing is Turning the Corner, Value Opportunities in the Growth Universe
07/21/09Equity Market Return Correlations, Exporters' Response to the Downturn, Reviewing the First Year's Performance of Our International Core Model
06/29/09Using Recent Management Action to Pick Stocks, A Focus on Canadian Strategy, Updating the International Distrusted Fifty
06/15/09International Stock Picking Tools for Analysts - Finding a Systematic Edge
06/09/09A Focus on European Strategy: Valuation Still Rules the Roost, Systematic Tools Can Be Helpful But Medium Term Growth Drivers Are Unclear
05/26/09More to Come From the Largest Value Cycle in Decades, Limited Value in Stable Earnings, Introducing Our International Large-Cap Growth Universe, Updating the Distrusted Fifty
05/05/09Core Model Tracking Well Ahead of Expectations, Arbitrage Risk Remains High in Industrial Commodities, More on Retailers Cutting Capital Spending
04/23/09The Big Picture: Some Perspective on Value's Huge Move, Taking Stock: The Exporters - Can We Make an Aggressive Bet Yet?
04/09/09The Big Picture: Housing, The Consumer and Cuts in Retailer Capital Spending, Quantitative Modeling and Sector Bets, Performance of Our Stock Selection Models
03/23/09The Big Picture - Valuation Dislocation in Europe, Can Systematic Tools Help in Identifying Regional Opportunities? Free Cash Flow: Exploiting Skepticism in the Market, Introducing the International Distrusted Fifty
02/27/09Global Technology: U.S. Companies Are Best Positioned to Weather the Storm, Gross Cash Flow Yield: Helpful in Energy? Finding Relative Value in European Consumer Cyclicals
02/11/09Now's the Time for Normal, Japan's Experience with Deflation and What it Means for Stock Picking
01/27/09Introducing the Global Failure Model
01/15/09The Recovery in Value Continues, How Arbitrage Risk Can Be Helpful, Performance of Our International and Global Stock Selection Models
12/22/08Valuation Comes Back Worldwide
12/15/08Globalization: A Complex Business, What's Discounted in Stocks? Characterizing the Value Opportunity, Telecom vs. Pharmaceuticals: Any Value in Defense?
11/14/08Valuation Spreads - Panic Quantified, Global Valuations: Discounting a Sharp Profit Decline, Stock Selection: What's Working and Why, Global Cyclicals: Values Yet?
10/17/08Dividend Yield: An Elixir for Bear Markets and Beyond, Europe and the Precedents for Banking Crises, Gross Cash Flow Yield in Global Cyclicals - Helpful in a Recession?
09/23/08A Dramatic Slowdown Materializes Outside the U.S., Valuation Spreads Start to Matter, Is There a Positive for the Consumer? Further Work on the Corporate Credit Cycle
08/26/08Global Linkages: What's Next for the Credit Cycle and Financial Stocks? Pharmaceuticals vs. Staples; Performance of Our International Stock Selection Model
08/08/08International Valuation Spreads Widen, U.K. Spreads Blow Out, Global Cyclicals - True to Their Name? Is Gross Cash Flow Yield Still Useful?
07/21/08Introducing the Global Stock Selection Model
07/08/08The Consumer Cyclical Stocks: Too Early or Right on Time?
06/06/08Introducing the International Core Stock Selection Model
05/22/08Using Capital Deployment and Earnings Quality to Identify Winning and Losing Stocks
05/01/08Defining Value, How We Use It, What's Cheap Now
04/15/08Financials: A Framework for Uncertainty, Deleveraging and Mega-Caps, Discounting Bad News
03/31/08Picking Financial Stocks: The Evidence

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