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01/10/08Brinksmanship
12/19/07Same As It Ever Was, Same As It Never Was
12/06/07The U.S., China and the Deep Cyclicals, Home Ownership and the Housing Cycle, Consumer Cyclicals: Not Ripe for Bottom Fishing
11/26/07Extremities, The Housing Cycle, Gauging the Risk of Recession, Deep Cyclicals and the 1956 Precedent, The Distrusted Fifty Updated
11/02/07Timing the Financials, A Classic Growth Stock Cycle, Inflation Threats Assessed
10/23/07Profit Margins and Regression to the Mean, Earnings Expectations: Do They Matter? The Brokerage Firms: Values or Fractured Momentum Stocks?
10/09/07Anomaly Watch: Pattern Recognition Gone Wild? Technology: A Late Cycle Play? More on Housing and Consumer Spending, Portfolio Changes and Performance
10/02/07The Dollar and Bretton Woods II, The Housing Adjustment and Consumer Cyclicals, More on What Works When Growth Stocks Lead, Fund of Funds Performance
09/14/07Illustrated: The Cycle, When Growth Takes Over From Value, Size Matters; The Future of the Money Management Industry - A Brief Update
09/07/07The Fed, the Cycle and Financial Stocks, The Consumer: Near the Breaking Point? The Distrusted Fifty Updated
08/15/07Betwixt and Between
08/07/07The Mortgage Credit Crunch: Where We Stand
07/26/07The Run in Global Cyclicals: How Will We Know When the End is Near? Countrywide, Housing and the Financials, the Small-Capitalization Trading Model
07/09/07The Global Cyclicals: Is the Multiple Expansion Phase Yet to Come?
06/15/07The Mega-Caps: Are the Ducks in a Row, yet? Oil Prices and Global Capital Goods Demand, Home Prices and Subprime Mortgage Delinquencies
06/11/07Bretton Woods II: The Precedent of Japan, Why Multiples Aren't Higher, The Housing Cycle: Losses Appear, Portfolio Changes and Performance
05/25/07Retailers: No Bottom to Fish, The Buyout Boom - How Far Along? Value With a Catalyst Still Works, CAPX Soaring Almost Everywhere
04/17/07Bretton Woods II: Regime Change? Value's Great Run: Three Stories in One
03/26/07More on the Secret to Portfolio Construction: Conviction; The Housing Downturn and Employment, Portfolio Changes and Performance
03/19/07Is the Mortgage Credit Cycle a Game Changer? What Does the Deterioration in Profitability Mean?
03/02/07Where We Stand: Illustrated
02/26/07Capital Spending is Booming - So What? Another Hurdle for Short Sellers: Spreads, Finally Positive Returns that Persist: Those of "Good" Deals
02/09/07The Earnings Picture: It's 1999 All Over Again, Value Stocks - Sometimes It Matters Where They've Been
01/12/07Where We Stand, Energy Stocks: Are They Value Yet? Systemic Risk from Hedge Funds
01/08/07The Hedgehog and the Fox, 2006 Model and Portfolio Performance and the Story It Tells, More on Sub-Prime Mortgages
12/21/06Four Wishes
12/18/06The Mortgage Credit Cycle: Payback Time?
11/17/06Diagnosing 2006's Performance Problems, Is China a Perpetual Motion Machine? Anomaly Watch: Consumer Staples at Parity
11/10/06Earnings Tell A Story and Capital Spending Does Too, Do Earnings Matter Less Than They Used To? Private Equity: Value Buyers
10/09/06Market Leadership and Monetary Policy, The Distribution of Income and Retailers, The New Economy Vindicated
09/28/06Where We Stand, Energy Stock Valuations and Financials Involvement in Commodities, Capital Use and Its Consequences: Attrition in Free Cash Flow
09/11/06The Loss of Operating Leverage and the Mega-Cap Stocks, Retailers - All Tied Up, Portfolio Changes and Performance
08/21/06What's Cheap Now and How Sure Should We Be? The Message from Capital Spending, Anomaly Watch: Hotels and Casinos Versus Retailers
08/04/06Interest Rates, the Consumer and Earnings: Leverage Rolls Over, Estimating Normal Free Cash Flow Yields, Big Growers and Fat Tails
07/14/06Are 5% Free Cash Flow Yields A Cushion? The Odds Facing Mega-Acquirers, Underfunding: Should We Care?, Growth Model Performance, Distrusted Fifty
06/16/06Where's the Overshoot? Commodity Futures and the Stocks, Valuation of Companies with Underfunded Pension Plans
05/17/06The Big Picture, Earnings Streaks and Multiple Improvement, The Brokers and Respect, The Unwinding of the Housing Boom
05/09/06The HMOs: At it Again? Capital Spending in Commodities Industries, Competition and Profitability, The Focus Portfolio
04/20/06Deep Cyclicals: Over the Top? Telecommunications Services Versus Pharmaceuticals, Inflating Imports and the Consumer, Portfolio Performance and Changes
03/06/06Demographics, the Housing Cycle and the Consumer Stocks, Semiconductors Unbundled, The China Plays: Managements Onboard
02/13/06The Mega-Caps: Out of Favor or Out of Luck? Where We Stand, Earnings, Portfolio Changes
01/20/06Distribution of Income, Outlook for Consumer Cyclicals
01/12/06Integrated Oils, Low-PE and High-ROE, The Focus Portfolio
01/05/06Where We Stand - The Capital is Back in Capitalism
12/20/05Consumer Spending, Rates, Homebuilders and Portfolio Changes
11/14/05Map of the Market, Railroads, Buying the Dips
10/26/05Housing, Portfolio Performance and Changes
10/06/05Consumer Cyclicals - Distrusted Fifty
09/29/05Energy, Large-Small vs. Small-Small, Hedge Funds
09/13/05Energy, The Consumer, Portfolio Changes
08/29/05Energy, Industrial Commodity and Utility Stocks
08/16/05Value Cycle, Technology vs. Media, Housing
07/26/05Top 10 Financials - Earnings Expectations
07/18/05Return of Capital, Bretton Woods II and the Housing Boom, Capital Good Stocks
07/01/05Supply & Demand in China, Housing, Pattern Recognition, Energy, Portfolio Changes
06/14/05The Yield Curve, Housing Boom, Corporate America
05/23/05Bretton Woods II, Disparities, The Consumer, Portfolio Changes
04/15/05Growth Stocks in Purgatory, Cyclicals, Energy, Portfolio Changes
04/06/05Expensing Stock Options - Attention Deficit Disorder
03/28/05Blissful Retailers - A Compression Anomaly
03/10/05Mergers, Model Performance and Portfolio Changes
03/02/05Inflation a Bugaboo - Energy Stocks
02/23/05Capital Spending Has Turned - Implications for Portfolio Strategy
01/31/05The Consumer - Borrowing Against Homes
01/13/05Where We Stand: Hearts and Minds
12/16/04Basic Industry: Peril at the 20th Percentile?
11/17/04Earnings Literalness, Jobs, Energy and Portfolio Changes
10/26/04Anomaly Watch - Growth Stocks, Utilities, Energy
10/11/04Capital Spending and Its Consequences
09/23/04Jobs, Jobs, Jobs - A Restructuring Story
08/24/04Is Housing A Bubble?
08/11/04Pushing Out the Tails - Energy Fairly Valued
07/28/04The Uncertainty Principle Revisited
07/09/04Capacity Utilization, Cost Curves and Sustainability of Record Free Cash Flow
06/29/04Energy, Financial Earnings, Growth Stock Focus Portfolio
05/20/04Anomaly Watch and Portfolio Changes
05/06/04Earnings and Capital Spending - Implications for Risk Taking
04/27/04Monetary Policy and Portfolio Construction
04/08/04Our Inaugural Large-Capitalization Core Portfolio and Notes on Earnings and Stable Growth Stocks, Energy, Dividend Policy and Acquisitions
03/10/04Capital Spending - Convertible Bond Issuance
02/17/04The Case for a Procyclical Tilt is Still Largely Intact
01/21/04Anomaly Watch and Notes on Consumer Cyclicals, Financials and Technology
01/07/04Is Another Merger Boom On the Horizon? Implications for Stock Selection
11/21/03Anomaly Watch and Three Brief Notes
11/12/03Offense or Defense? Where We Stand
09/29/03Energy and Pharmaceuticals: Values?
08/22/03The Consumer, Interest Rates and Consumer Cyclical Stocks
08/01/03Are Technology Hardware Companies Today's Cyclicals? Is Free Cash Flow Really Free? The Case of the Underfunding of Defined Benefit Pension Plans
07/02/03Financial Stocks and the Law of Small Numbers
05/20/03Consumer Debt: Analysis and Implications for Stock Selection
04/28/03Capital Spending
01/18/08Finding An All-Weather Advantage, The Global Cyclicals: High Stakes Poker, When Do Trends Cease to Matter? The Message from Corporate Bond Performance
12/14/07Where We Stand, Does Bond Performance Tell Us What Stocks to Buy? Consequences of Dividend Cuts, What Book to Use, Subprime Relief - Does it Matter?
11/13/07Financial Stock Valuations, Earnings, A Regime-Sensitive Small-Cap Model
10/16/07Growth Stocks As Leaders: Is What's Happening Unusual? A Regime-Sensitive Model, The Four Horsemen Ride Again, Hedge Fund Correlations
09/24/07The Momentum Market: More to Come? The Financials, The Fed and the Credit Cycle: The 1989-92 Precedent
08/27/07What's the Matter with Quant Models? The Answer: A Turning Point + Leverage, Utilities: What Counts, Combining Our Investment and Trading Models
07/20/07Technology - One Year Later, Trading Rules, Dividend Growth Counts - Occasionally
07/16/07FAQs: Subprime ARM Repricings, Energy: Elasticity of Demand, Seasonality and Momentum, Convertibles with Big Premiums, Modeling Micro-Caps,Growth Rebalancing
05/18/07The Global Capital Spending Super Cycle, The Messages of Our Fundamental Model, Funding Repurchases, Traders in the Driver's Seat, Failure Modeling
05/08/07Earnings, Capital Goods Stocks, Private Equity Premiums, Anticipation of Good News
04/03/07Commonalities Among the Big Losers of the 2000s, The Fundamental Model, Small-Cap Stocks: Emerging Market Plays, Residual Reversal Revisited
03/13/07Modeling the Unmodelable: Biotechnology and Media, When Do We Get Paid for an Earnings Surprise? The Distrusted Fifty
02/20/07Short Sellers' Problem: Overcapacity, Sectors Where Earnings Revisions Still Help, Exploiting Declines in Capital Expenditures
02/05/07Betting on Beta: Oil Services Versus Semiconductors, The Biggest Anomaly, Changes to Our Failure Methodology, Portfolio Performance and Changes
01/26/07Why Free Cash Flow Works, Are Record Profit Margins a Problem from Here? More on Surprises – Negative Ones
01/22/07Technology: Still Values? Can We Profit from Earnings Surprise Streaks?
12/08/06Exploiting Value: How, When, Where and Now
12/01/06Volatility: Friend or Foe? Does Corporate Governance Matter? Anomaly Watch: Electric Utilities Versus Energy Stocks, Options Backdating
11/02/06The Consumer By the Numbers, Anomaly Watch: The Valuation of Regional Banks, Does R&D Spending Matter? Mega-Growers, Portfolio Changes
10/24/06Growth Stock Dynamics: Potential Tops Reality, A Holistic Approach to Payouts, Endowment Envy and Size
10/16/06The Secret to Portfolio Construction: Confidence, The Margin Story for Small-Caps, Our Favorite Screens, Model Notes
09/20/06Oil Service - Nobody Knows Nuttin'? Technology's Free Cash Flow Yields Redux, Large Versus Small By Sector, The Distrusted Fifty Updated
08/28/06Housing and Consumer Spending: The Downturn Worsens, Quantitative Models and Industry Bets, Tools for Picking Financial Stocks
08/11/06Technology's Free Cash Flow Yields and Stock Performance, The Equity Risk Premium and Bearish CFOs, Failure Modeling
07/19/06Storm Fronts: What's Cheap Now, How Vulnerable are the Industrials to a Slowdown? Failure Modeling and Sector Bets
07/07/06More on Systematic Tools for Sector Betting, Valuation Spreads and Credit Default Swaps, Capital Spending Levels, Model Performance, Focus Portfolio Update
06/27/06Systematic Tools for Sector Betting, Interpreting Energy's Single-Digit P/Es, Earnings Expectations: A Straight Line Extrapolation
06/06/06Inflation and Valuation Spreads, Capital Goods Stocks, Homebuilders, More on Deep Value, Portfolio Changes and Performance
05/30/06Are Acquisitions Now A Good Thing? Big Is A Bit Better, Valuation of the Financials, More On Endowment Envy, The Housing Cycle and the CPI
05/02/06Dealing with Momentum Markets, Industrial Capital Spending Booms, Bank Stocks, Do Sell-Side Analysts Matter? The Distrusted Fifty Revisited
04/07/06The Bond and The Cycle, The Deep Value Style: It's Late, Dealing with Overearning Cyclicals with Momentum, Rules for Picking Media Stocks
03/21/06Agriculture Stocks, Oil Stocks, Focus Portfolio, Primary Trend and Model Enhancements
03/13/06Picking Consumer Staples: Value Stocks In Growth Guise; Where We Stand, Portfolio Changes
02/23/06The Metals: Still the Efficient China Call? A Little Model for Big Growers
02/15/06A Value Horse Race, Updating Our Failure Models, The Focus Portfolio
02/03/06One Good Chart Too Many?
01/27/06Option Expensing, Valuation + Market Reaction, Price-to-Book
12/13/05Anomaly Watch - For the Biggest Growers, The Balace Sheet Tells Us If The Story's Played Out
12/06/05Free Cash Flow, Big Growers & Balance Sheet Trends, Growth Stocks
11/28/05Picking Health Care Stocks By the Numbers; Portfolio Performance and Changes
11/04/05Oil Shocks, Earnings, Options, Modeling ADRs
10/18/05Balance Sheets, Capital Spending, Housing & Energy
09/19/05Corporate Bonds, Buybacks, Free Cash Flow, Options Indicator
08/22/05Stock Options - Growth Stocks Free Cash Flow
08/05/05Is the Momentum Market Back?
07/12/05Anomaly Watch: Growth Within Growth is Cheap
06/23/05Forecasting Failure at the Stock Level
06/07/05Fed Policy, Pattern Recognition and Growth Stocks, Short Interest
06/01/05TMT The New Pragmatists, Dividends, Model Notes, Private Equity
04/26/05Dividend Yield
03/17/05Buybacks, Small-Cap GARP, Trend-Following in Growth Stocks
02/15/05Reacting to Big Stock Moves - Do Analysts Still Act Incrementally
02/08/05GARP, Earnings, Model Performance and Portfolio Changes
01/20/05Reacting to Earnings - Dividend Increases or Share Repurchase
01/05/05Has Free Cash Flow Had Its Day?, Small-Cap Value Failure, Portfolio Changes
11/30/04Do Taxes Matter - Arbitrage Risk and Stock Failure Prediction
10/20/04The Failure of Trend Following
10/05/04Eluding Value Stock Torpedoes
08/03/04Beware of Headshots - Avoiding Small Capitalization Growth Stock Failure
07/22/04Microsoft’s Actions – The Empirical Evidence
06/23/04Avoiding Growth Stock Failure
05/26/04Avoiding Big Losers - A Systematic Approach
04/20/04Small-Cap. Turnarounds Revisited
04/14/04Picking Mega-Cap Winners
03/17/04Exploiting Earnings Quality to Identify Winning and Losing Stocks
02/26/04Capital Deployment, Financing and Their Consequences
02/05/04Defining Value - Evidence, Our Approach, What's Cheap Now
12/17/03Nobody Knows Nuttin' - A Case for Energy
12/03/03Picking Technology Stocks: More than Just Momentum, A Lot More
10/29/03Buying R & D on the Cheap - An Update and Sectoral Implications
10/20/03Picking Financial Stocks - The Industry-Level Evidence
09/09/03Has Free Cash Flow Had Its Day?
07/24/03After Value, What? The Case for Capital Use
06/18/03Finding Small-Capitalization Turnaround Situations that Work
06/10/03Cash Flow, Debt and Dividend Policy: Analysis and Implications for Stock Selection
05/28/03Picking Free Cash Flow Winners
05/12/03Buying R & D on the Cheap
01/03/08The Future of the Money Management Industry - Pension Markets Undone, Global Distribution, 130/30, Subadvisory: A Steamroller?
05/31/07The Future of the Money Management Industry - A Brief Update
04/26/07The Future of the Money Management Industry - The Retirement Markets - Calling All Heroes
07/27/06The Future of the Money Management Industry - An Update
04/03/06The Future of the Money Management Industry - The Great Divide
05/04/05The Future of the Money Management Industry - Triumph of the Pessimists
06/10/04The Future of the Money Management Industry - The Day After Tomorrow Has Arrived
10/09/03The Future of the Money Management Industry - A Brief Update
02/21/03The Future of the Money Management Industry 2003
06/28/07Large-Capitalization Trading Model
11/08/04Small-Capitalization Value Stock Selection Model
09/08/04Large-Capitalization Value Stock Selection Model
07/20/04Small-Capitalization Growth Stock Selection Model
06/21/04Large-Capitalization Growth Stock Selection Model
03/23/04Large-Capitalization Core Stock Selection Model
04/20/04Large-Capitalization Core Portfolio
04/20/04Value Focus Portfolio
04/08/04Large-Capitalization Core Portfolio

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